College football has finally returned!
While Arizona State, and many other programs, don't kick off their season until next week, this Saturday brings the official start of the season with Week 0 action. Three different Big 12 programs start their season this weekend, with a conference rivalry taking place in Ireland, of all places.
With that in mind, it's time to take one last crack at predicting the records and standings of every single Big 12 team. Our own Andrew Hayslett offered his take earlier this summer, and you can read an in-depth breakdown of all 15 conference foes next to their section in this ranking.
As for the Sun Devils, they're trying to become the first team to repeat as Big 12 champions since Oklahoma did it in 2018 and 2019. Do we think they can make history? Let's find out.
#1: Arizona State Sun Devils 11-1 (8-1)
The Sun Devils won the Big 12 last year, and they return more starters in 2025 than any other team. They're led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, who already has an elite connection with star wideout Jordyn Tyson and also added Jalen Moss to the fold. The defense also looks primed to be a Top 25 unit.
A year ago, Arizona State finished the regular season 10-2, but one of those losses came without Leavitt on the field. The Heisman contending quarterback should be even better this year, so it's perfectly conceivable that they finish the season with just one loss. And if I had to bet on which one they lose, I'm circling that road game in the rowdy confines of Utah's Rice-Eccles Stadium.
#2. Utah Utes 10-2 (7-2)
The Utes are practically guaranteed to be better than they were last year, when they went 5-7. New offensive coordinator Jason Beck brings a fresh offense, and quarterback Devon Dampier put up respectable numbers on a poor New Mexico squad last year playing in Beck's offense.
Pair that duo with the consistently stout Utes defense, and you've got a recipe for a bounce back year. It's fair to question Dampier's effectiveness in stepping up to the Power 4 level, which is why they'll drop consecutive games to Baylor and Kansas State towards the end of the season, but it'll still be good enough for Utah to reach the Big 12 title game.
#3. Kansas State Wildcats 9-3 (6-2)
Kansas State was supposed to be a top contender last year, but quarterback Avery Johnson had more hiccups than expected in his first full season as the starter in Manhattan. This year should be better, though, with Johnson already having built a great relationship with new offensive play-caller Matt Wells.
The schedule also gets easier, with non-conference matchups against FCS North Dakota, Army, and Arizona. They'll drop games to Baylor and Texas Tech before an upset loss in Stillwater late in the year tosses the Wildcats out of the Big 12 race. Still, a third place finish isn't terrible.
#4. Texas Tech Red Raiders 9-3 (7-2)
Similarly to Kansas State, Texas Tech is hoping to finally deliver on the offseason hype this year. They've spent a ton of money on this roster, and head coach Joey McGuire expects a conference title before quarterback Behren Morton runs out of eligibility.
Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, road trips to face both Utah and Arizona State will put them in a hole early on. That, combined with a Friday night upset loss at West Virginia to end the season, will drop the Red Raiders to fourth place.
#5. Baylor Bears 8-4 (6-3)
Dave Aranda may very well have saved his job last year, as the Bears won their final six games of the regular season. Now, they return a good chunk of that team, anchored by quarterback Sawyer Robertson. Along with Robertson comes improved odds of contending in the Big 12.
Even so, the schedule is tough. An early non-conference road trip to SMU will only be complicated by games against Arizona State, TCU, Kansas State, and Utah. They'll win the latter two, but a late season loss on the road against Arizona ends up being just enough to keep Baylor from driving up the road to AT&T Stadium for the conference title game.
#6. TCU Horned Frogs 8-4 (5-4)
We're only three seasons removed from TCU playing in the National Championship Game, but it's felt like an eternity for Horned Frogs fans. Last year was a rather quiet 9-4 finish, and the retention of rising quarterback Josh Hoover has expectations rapidly rising. Head coach Sonny Dykes said at Big 12 Football Media Days that he'll be disappointed if TCU misses the Big 12 title game.
Unfortunately for Dykes, the odds of such a disappointment are high. The conference is stacked, and TCU has to face fellow contenders Arizona State and Kansas State on the road; other road games come in particularly challenging environments, with West Virginia and BYU both presenting underdog challenges. Those four games will be trouble for the Horned Frogs, who have a low margin of error if they want to live up to their head coach's expectations.
#7. Iowa State Cyclones 8-4 (5-4)
Last year turned out to be the best season in Iowa State football history, winning double digit games for the first time ever. Matt Campbell and the rest of his staff all return, as does quarterback Rocco Becht, but the Cyclones lost several impact starters and have a much harder schedule.
A season opener against Kansas State in Ireland is enough of a challenge, as is their annual rivalry game with Iowa. They also face Arizona State, TCU, Kansas, Colorado, and Cincinnati, the latter two of which are more challenging given it's a road game for the Cyclones. Iowa State is always a tough out, but they'll be one of several Big 12 schools to beat each other up in the standings this season.
#8. Kansas Jayhawks 7-5 (5-4)
How far has Kansas come under head coach Lance Leipold? Last year's 5-7 season felt underwhelming, and it was. This year, the Jayhawks have new faces at both coordinator positions (both internal promotions) but return plenty of talent on the field, headlined by quarterback Jalon Daniels.
Kansas was 4-2 over the last half of last season, shaking off a slow start, and they hope to carry that over. But the schedule is tougher, with a non-conference road game against Missouri, and conference matchups against Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Utah. The Jayhawks will be competitive in each of those, but it's hard to imagine them surviving that kind of gauntlet.
#9. Oklahoma State Cowboys 6-6 (4-5)
Mike Gundy just suffered his first losing season since 2005, his first year on the job. In response, he's overhauled nearly his entire coaching staff, and enters 2025 firmly on the hot seat. The former Cowboys quarterback has always delivered his best years when his back is against the wall, though.
This won't quite fall into that category, but Gundy seems likely to have an ace up his sleeve that gets Oklahoma State back into a bowl game. Upset wins over Houston, Cincinnati, and Kansas State will help get the job done, and offer Gundy the chance to retire on a somewhat high note after last year's disaster.
#10. Cincinnati Bearcats 6-6 (4-5)
Another coach entering this year on the hot seat is Scott Satterfield. He won big at Appalachian State and stayed competitive at Louisville, but two straight losing seasons in Cincinnati have made the fan base restless. Satterfield has talent, though, and the Bearcats figure to be better than they were last year.
Opening the season against Nebraska won't help, but facing tougher teams like Iowa State and BYU at home will manifest some victories in unexpected ways. Getting bowl eligible is likely the standard this year, and Cincinnati should be able to manage that.
#11. Houston Cougars 6-6 (4-5)
First things first, it would not surprise me if Houston ends up in the Big 12 title game this year. Willie Fritz is a turnaround master, and reuniting with offensive coordinator Slade Nagle (not to mention adding transfer quarterback Conner Weigman) should provide a massive boost.
Still, it's hard to project that big of a jump without seeing any real proof. The Cougars should be much better, though, and their schedule provides several winnable games (Colorado, Arizona, West Virginia, and UCF seem ripe for conference victories). Getting bowl eligible is probably the most realistic expectation this year anyway.
#12. Arizona Wildcats 6-6 (4-5)
Arizona may be the Big 12 team with the greatest potential for variance. I could see their bevvy of offseason moves manifesting itself in a championship run, much like in-state rival Arizona State last year, just as much as I can imagine the bottom falling out completely. And anything in between.
I'm going with the between. Brent Brennan is a genuinely good coach in a horrible situation, but his two new coordinators both have strong track records. It really all depends on whether or not quarterback Noah Fifita is actually as good as his 2023 season or if that was a mirage induced by Tetairoa McMillan's dominance. I anticipate some uneven play, but an upset win over Baylor towards the end of the year buys Brennan enough good will for a third year.
#13. BYU Cougars 6-6 (3-6)
It's hard to predict anything for BYU without knowing who the quarterback will be. Jake Retzlaff's sudden departure has left plenty of questions in Provo, and turned a likely Big 12 contender into a nearly imperceptible spectacle.
Whoever ends up being the starter, though, will inherit a strong run game and stingy defense. Combine that with a stadium that's notoriously hostile to visitors and the Cougars have enough firepower to get bowl eligible. A late upset win over TCU in said stadium will be the high point of a season that tests the resolve of head coach Kalani Sitake.
#14. Colorado Buffaloes 4-8 (2-7)
Figuring out Colorado this year is about as impossible as the previous two years under Deion Sanders' reign as head coach. But with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter both in the NFL now, along with a whole lot of other starters on last year's squad, the Buffaloes have more questions than answers.
A season-opening loss to Georgia Tech will invite some chaos, and a second half schedule that features Big 12 contenders Arizona State, Iowa State, Utah, and Kansas State will ensure a downer ending to the year for Colorado.
#15. West Virginia Mountaineers 4-8 (2-7)
Who says you can't go home? Rich Rodriguez returned to coach his alma mater 18 years after dumping them for the not-so-green pastures of Ann Arbor. He's enacted a near-total facelift of the program, which has led to muted expectations in Year 1 of RichRod 2.0 in Morgantown.
That said, Rodriguez has just seven losing seasons in his 27 years as a head coach. The man knows how to win, especially at West Virginia, and the Mountaineers have a unique homefield advantage compared to the rest of the Big 12. That'll help Rodriguez notch a couple upset wins here and there, enough to offer fans hope for the future.
#16. UCF Knights 3-9 (1-8)
Much like Rodriguez returning to West Virginia, Scott Frost is once again coaching UCF, and he's been candid (perhaps too much) about how ditching the Knights for his alma mater Nebraska was a big mistake. Either way, Frost has a Herculean task ahead of him in building UCF back to its glory days under his first reign.
The on-field outlook isn't great right now, especially given Frost's lengthy hiatus from college coaching at this point. The Knights also face several top Big 12 contenders this year, making the road ahead even harder. Last year, the Sun Devils taught everyone a lesson about declaring any Big 12 team dead in the water, but UCF seems considerably more likely to finish last in the conference this year.