The new season of college football is nearly upon us, and while Arizona State is seeking to repeat as Big 12 champions, the rest of the conference will have something to say about that. In anticipation of the new season, we're breaking down each of the 15 other schools and where they stand heading into the year. You can find previously released breakdowns below.
Oklahoma State
Houston
BYU
Colorado
Today, we look at one of just two Big 12 teams to beat Arizona State last year, the Cincinnati Bearcats.
What happened last year
Scott Satterfield's second season leading the Bearcats went better than his first, though it still wasn't what fans expected. Taking over for Luke Fickell, who went 57-18 in Cincinnati and broke into the College Football Playoff, was never going to be easy. But Satterfield, who had coached in the southeast for all but one year in his career, is still adjustng.
It helped that Satterfield figured out his quarterback situation, as Brendan Sorsby transferred in from Indiana and helped stabilize the offense. Powerful running back Cory Kiner posted his second straight 1,000 yard rushing season in as many years with Satterfield calling plays.
And yet, Cincinnati finished 5-7 and missed a bowl game for the second straight year. That made Satterfield the program's first coach this century to miss a bowl game twice. To be fair, four of those losses were decided by one score, but Cincinnati finished the year on a five-game losing streak.
What's new this year
The focus of this offseason in Cincinnati was continuity. Satterfield swapped out two assistant coaches, but kept the core of his staff intact. The Bearcats saw 18 players transfer out, a pretty low number by today's standards, and added 17 new transfers.
The biggest of those transfers is Wisconsin running back Tawee Walker. With Kiner in the NFL, Walker figures to be the bellcow for Satterfield's run-heavy attack. He posted 864 rushing yards last year after becoming the starter a few weeks into the season.
Cincinnati also lost three of their starting offensive linemen, prompting serious questions about how they replace them. They added three transfers there, but none are obvious starter shoo-in's, meaning that Cincinnati will need players to earn it in the trenches this year.
The biggest addition for Cincinnati, though, isn't an addition at all. Defensive tackle Dontay Corleone has been a perennial playmaker for the Bearcats, but blood clots slowed him down last year and nearly threatened to end his season before it ever began. Not only did Corleone manage to play nearly a full year, but he opted to return for his final year of eligibility.
His presence significantly boosts this defense's outlook.
Reasons for optimism
Satterfield has a strong track record as a head coach. At Appalachian State, he suffered only one losing season (his first year on the job) and posted double digit wins three times, going undefeated in bowl games. At Louisville, Satterfield was less impressive but still only missed a bowl game once.
His run in Cincinnati has been disappointing thus far, but he took over a program that had just joined the Big 12 and lost its most successful coach, with many players transferring to follow him. Satterfield has been effectively rebuilding these first two years, but the combination of Sorsby and Walker should help make for a very efficient offense.
The schedule also lines up nicely. Starting the season against Nebraska isn't great, but given that game is a neutral site matchup, Cincinnati only has four true road games. They also get their toughest opponents - Iowa State and Baylor - in front of a home crowd that's made it very difficult for any visiting team.
Reasons for skepticism
The hiring of Satterfield never really made sense on paper. He'd won a lot but he's a North Carolina native who had almost exclusively coached in that region. Fickell's success at Cincinnati had been largely attributed to his deep recruiting ties in Ohio and the surrounding area, which Satterfield simply doesn't have.
If you look at the current Cincinnati staff, only one coach has any meaningful ties to the region, while most come from the South, like Satterfield. That doesn't mean it's impossible for this regime to have success, but their recruiting classes have all ranked outside of the Top 60 since Satterfield arrived.
On top of it all, the Big 12 is just very loaded in terms of talent, and the Bearcats may not have made enough impact additions to close the gap.
Realistic expectations
On paper, Cincinnati should be reasonably good this year. Sorsby has another year in this offense, Walker seems like an upgrade over Kiner, and Corleone should be able to reach a new level with his health under control.
Again, the schedule is really the biggest positive right now, too. Hosting BYU, Arizona, and UCF should all translate to wins, and a road trip to face Oklahoma State doesn't feel that daunting. Getting bowl eligible feels entirely realistic given the schedule and talent that is present.
If that doesn't happen, though, Satterfield will likely be on the chopping block. Cincinnati hasn't had three straight losing seasons since the start of the 1990's, and the athletics department has invested far too much into football this past decade to see that repeated.