The new season of college football is nearly upon us, and while Arizona State is seeking to repeat as Big 12 champions, the rest of the conference will have something to say about that. In anticipation of the new season, we're breaking down each of the 15 other schools and where they stand heading into the year. You can find previously released breakdowns below.
Oklahoma State
Houston
BYU
Colorado
Cincinnati
Arizona
West Virginia
Kansas
UCF
TCU
Baylor
Up next is the odds-on favorite (according to FanDuel Sportsbook) to win the Big 12 this year, the Kansas State Wildcats.
What happened last year
Kansas State entered 2024 with a disel engine hype train. Avery Johnson had flashed elite potential in limited action the year before, and was entering his first full season as the starting quarterback. Kansas State had also just posted their third consecutive 8+ win season, and a wide open conference had everyone ready to believe.
As it turned out, Johnson wasn't quite as ready for prime time as many believed. He was still good - throwing for 2,703 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding 699 yards and seven more scores on the ground - but Johnson's 57.5% completion rate was second-worst in the Big 12.
The Wildcats as a whole faltered towards the end of the year. They started out 7-1, with the lone loss on the road against BYU, but dropped three of their final four regular season games. One of those, on the road against Houston, was a shocker; Arizona State and Iowa State, who met each other in the conference championship game, were more worthy opponents.
Still, Kansas State finished 9-4 after beating Rutgers in the Rate Bowl. A solid season, to be sure, but Wildcats fans were still disappointed relative to preseason expectations.
What's new this year
Offensive coordinator Conor Riley left to coach the offensive line for the Dallas Cowboys, which led to co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Matt Wells to be promoted to a play-calling role. Wells has a reputation as a quarterback development guru, but he hasn't called plays since the 2016 season, when he was the head coach at Utah State.
The Wildcats also took some hits in the transfer portal. Offensive tackle Carver Willis and cornerback Noah King, both rated as 4-star transfers, left Manhattan; so, too, did promising receiver Tre Spivey. Kansas State added 17 new transfers, with six coming along the offensive line, and Penn State guard JB Nelson expected to contribute immediately.
The biggest news, though, was Johnson's return. While the Wildcats weren't concerned about Johnson entering the draft, there was some worry he might transfer, especially after Riley's departure. The swift promotion of Wells was viewed by some as playing a part in keeping Johnson in town.
Reasons for optimism
The Wildcats have been gradually building a contender under head coach Chris Klieman, who four FCS National Championships before coming to Manhattan. Now in his seventh season, Klieman has fallen short of eight wins just once, and it came in the pandemic year.
The excitement around Johnson is also valid. He's a legitimate dual threat quarterback who just needs some refinement; last year, playing with a first-time coordinator, may not have been the best environment for him. Wells, though, has been cited by Klieman and Johnson several times this offseason as a major positive influence.
Klieman stopped short of saying Wells was an upgrade over Riley at the Big 12 Football Media Days, but he did praise Wells' relationship with Johnson and touted it as a key factor in improving the offense. Kansas State has plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball, but Johnson's play will be what catapults them to the Big 12 title game.
Reasons for skepticism
Ironically, we can repeat ourselves a lot here: Johnson and Wells are both kind of wild cards.
Johnson's play in 2024 was occasionally erratic, and often made it harder for the Wildcats to play winning football. His style of play can lead to great variance on a team, so if he hasn't made improvements from last year, Kansas State could once again fall short of their ultimate goal.
Similarly, Wells is known for his prowess as a quarterbacks coach, but it's been nearly a decade since he called plays. In fact, his last season doing so ended poorly, as it was the only time Utah State failed to reach a bowl game under his tenure. Wells may have a great relationship with Johnson, but if he has any hiccups as a play-caller, it'll be all for nothing.
Realistic expectations
Kansas State is the odds-on favorite to win the Big 12, which may be a little surprising. They fell short of pretty lofty expectations last year, and the bar is even higher now.
They have a tough schedule, too: the season starts Week 0 in Ireland against rival Iowa State and ends with three road games in the final month, including a trip to face Utah. Several other likely Big 12 contenders litter the schedule, though they do avoid Arizona State this time.
Still, that's a gauntlet the Wildcats will have to run. There's not much room for error, either, so it's hard to buy them as likely Big 12 champions unless everything comes together. Still, Kansas State looks to be in perfect position for another strong season.