The new season of college football is nearly upon us, and while Arizona State is seeking to repeat as Big 12 champions, the rest of the conference will have something to say about that. In anticipation of the new season, we're breaking down each of the 15 other schools and where they stand heading into the year. You can find previously released breakdowns below.
Oklahoma State
Houston
BYU
Colorado
Cincinnati
Arizona
West Virginia
Kansas
UCF
TCU
Today, we're looking at the first Big 12 foe the Sun Devils will face this year, the Baylor Bears.
What happened last year
After two straight losing seasons, punctutated by missing a bowl game for the first time since his first year on the job, Dave Aranda made big changes. He swapped out offensive coordinators, hiring Jake Spavital away from Cal, and took over defensive play-calling duties. He also committed to being more active in the transfer portal, something Baylor had largely avoided under his tenure.
At first, it looked like it wouldn't be good enough to cool down Aranda's very hot seat. Transfer quarterback Dequan Finn was injured early on, and Sawyer Robertson looked lost early on. The Bears stumbled to a 2-4 start, with a 22 point loss to Iowa State feeling like the final straw before the levvy broke.
Then, something started to click. Baylor blew out Texas Tech, snapping the Red Raiders' four-game win streak. That kicked off a magical run that saw Baylor win their final six games of the regular season, finishing 8-4. A loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl didn't put any damper on the year, and Aranda very likely saved his job.
What's new this year
Much like TCU, Baylor committed their offseason to continuity. They had only 21 transfers out, with less than half being upperclassmen, and brought in 23 transfers. The two biggest additions in that class are FIU linebacker Travion Barnes and Alabama wide receiver Kobe Prentice.
Prentice, a former 5-star recruit, joins a Baylor offense that returns its top two receivers from last year, alongside tight end Michael Trigg. The running back tandem of Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass, who combined for 1,700+ rushing yards last year, are also back.
So, too, is Robertson. One of many Big 12 quarterbacks entering the year with preseason hype, Robertson looked really good down the stretch last year and hopes to continue that momentum with continuity around him.
Reasons for optimism
Over the last half of last season, Baylor was nearly unstoppable. The offense was efficient and explosive, and the defense - coordinated by mad scientist Aranda - was dominating in much the same way they did in their 12-2 season back in 2021.
Baylor lost a couple players to the draft, but for the most part they're getting the band back together. They also draw an easier schedule, with six of their nine Big 12 matchups against teams that had a losing record last year.
Of those three other teams - Arizona State, Kansas State, and TCU - the first two are at home. Baylor also has tough non-conference opponents in Auburn and SMU, but they draw Auburn at home and their road trip from Waco to Dallas to play SMU isn't even 100 miles long.
Reasons for skepticism
In five seasons as head coach, Aranda has just two winning seasons. He followed up his breakthrough 12-win campaign with a 6-7 stinker, which was then followed up with a dismal 3-9 campaign. For his career, Aranda is 31-30, with that 2021 season doing most of the heavy lifting.
A year ago at this time, most people thought Aranda was a goner. For that same reason, Baylor could just as easily fall apart again. Until Aranda proves he can win consistently, the skepticism is warranted.
Realistic expectations
The Bears return a healthy chunk of their team that played at a very high level last year, including continuity on the coaching staff. Combined with a schedule that appears to be easier, the Bears have a legitimate case to be contenders in the Big 12 this year.
It's a loaded conference, to be sure, and it's hard to bet on Baylor given their lack of consistent success in the past decade. Still, Baylor probably belongs in the upper echelon of the Big 12 right now.