Ranking the Big 12 after Football Media Days

Big 12 football media days were the last two days, and a staple of the media days was the preseason media poll, where media members predict the order of the 16 teams in the conference. For the first time in a while, there is no media poll, as the conference’s staff, athletic directors and coaches have decided to eliminate it, joining the Big Ten as the second conference to do so. 

As someone who has participated in the Big 12 baseball tournament poll, this is a horrible move in my opinion. Rankings are a fun way to see what we as media get right and wrong, and at the end of the year, I will revisit this to see how it ages and either pretend I am a genius who knows all and predicts the future or someone who just does not know ball. 

Some proponents of eliminating the polls say that they are just based on last season’s results and that the method is dated. If that is the case, media members should conduct more thorough research and project rankings based on the returning talent, something I feel the media members do.

My rankings will feature heavily on who is returning. Another argument is that they skew the committee’s ranking at the end of the season. That could have some weight to it, but there will be plenty of other places producing rankings, so the committee would still have biases.

The Big 12 is a hard conference to predict, as the conference is considered to have the closest margins from first to worst, as everyone saw last year, Arizona State was picked last in the poll and won the whole thing. The term “competitive balance” was thrown around by almost anyone who appeared on the television coverage. 

Without further ado, here are my rankings for the Big 12 Conference.

16. Oklahoma State (3-9, 1-8 Big 12)

Head coach Mike Gundy had never gone winless in conference play at Oklahoma State until last year, his 20th year in Stillwater, when he went 0-9 in conference play after winning all three non-conference games. The Cowboys are in a rebuilding year with two new coordinators.

Oklahoma State brings in a roster that has a lot of turnover, as they have zero players on the Preseason All-Big 12 Team. Offensively, the Cowboys do not bring back anyone who had over 300 scrimmage yards. Defensively, they do not bring back many of their top players either. The good news is they have a top transfer class according to 247 and On3. The two outlets have a huge discrepancy for their freshman class, as On3 had them in the top five and 247 in the bottom five in conference.

The Cowboys visit Oregon in week two, a tough task as the Ducks are expected to compete for a national championship. If the Cowboys can steal a win there, it would be huge for them and the conference and could have the Big 12 with three teams in the College Football Playoff.

BOTTOM LINE: Gundy is likely in a rebuilding year where the Cowboys will likely miss a bowl game. It would be the first time in his career that he has missed a bowl game in back-to-back seasons, and only the third time in his career he has missed a bowl game.

Wins: UT Martin, Tulsa, and Cincinnati
Losses: at Oregon, Baylor, at Arizona, Houston, at Texas Tech, at Kansas, Kansas State, at UCF, and Iowa State

15. Arizona (3-9, 1-8 Big 12)

Arizona had a disappointing 2024 season, after expectations that had quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan in potential Heisman conversations. Second-year coach Brent Brennan faces a long road to put Arizona back where it was two seasons ago under Jedd Fisch, who left to replace Kalen DeBoer at Washington. The Wildcats are one of four teams without any players on the Preseason All-Big 12 Team.

McMillan and a huge chunk of Arizona’s offense are gone. The Wildcats will have to build around Fifita and Kansas transfer wide receiver Tre Spivey III to be successful. The defense features a little more retention with defensive back Genesis Smith and lineman Tre Smith highlighting the returners. Their 247 and On3 transfer portal and recruiting rankings are middle of the road, which could mean some improvement, but not much.

The Wildcats of Arizona and the Wildcats of Kansas State face off for the second straight year in a “non-conference” matchup, even though they are in the same conference. Each school will play ten Big 12 conference rivals, but the other nine will count toward the conference record.

BOTTOM LINE: Signs point that Brennan is not as capable a coach as Tucson wants him to be, as his replacement at San José State posted the same 7-6 record last year that Brennan did two seasons ago. 

Wins: Hawai’i, Weber State, and Oklahoma State
Losses: Kansas State (non-con), at Iowa State, Brigham Young, at Houston, at Colorado, Kansas, at Cincinnati, Baylor, and at Arizona State

14. Colorado (3-9, 1-8 Big 12)

Head coach Deion Sanders comes into a new year after losing his Heisman-winning wide receiver/cornerback, Travis Hunter, and Shadeur Sanders. They have Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis battling to be the next signal caller for the Buffaloes.

The rest of the offense sees the top rusher and the top three receiving options outside of Hunter depart from the program. Defensively, they lose a majority of their top players but keep Preseason All-Big 12 Team corner DJ McKinney. Offensive lineman Jordan Seaton also made the team. Colorado brings in the second-best transfer class in the conference, according to both 247 and On3, but that could force an unnatural gel, leading to subpar results. They also have a top freshman class.

The Buffaloes have one of the softest starts of the year by hosting Georgia Tech and Delaware, before going to Houston, followed by a home game against Wyoming. They have to stack at least three wins in that stretch to have a chance of being a contender in a deep conference.

BOTTOM LINE: Coach Prime will have a lot of work to do to keep Colorado near the top of the Big 12. Using the portal as much as the Buffs did is likely not a recipe for success.

Wins: Delaware, Wyoming, and Arizona
Losses: Georgia Tech, at Houston, BYU, at TCU, Iowa, at Utah, at West Virginia, Arizona State, and at Kansas State

13. Utah (5-7, 2-7 Big 12)

Head coach Kyle Whittingham is back for his 21st season. Cam Rising medically retired, so Whittingham brought in junior Devon Dampier to be his quarterback from New Mexico, along with offensive coordinator Jason Beck.

Dampier won Preseason Big 12 Newcomer of the Year. The only notable retention on offense is offensive lineman Preseason All-Big 12 Team lineman Spencer Fano. Defensively, the Utes hold on to a few of their key players. Utah brings in a middle-of-the-road portal class and the sixth-best freshman class per 247 and On3.

Utah faces old Pac-12 rival UCLA in week one in Pasadena. This is the first time either school has faced a conference foe that did not transfer to the same conference.

BOTTOM LINE: Utah has a lot of hype around them and for a team that did not have the success last season. Whittingham has had a lot of success at Utah, but the conference is deep.

Wins: at UCLA, Cal Poly, Wyoming, Colorado, and Cincinnati
Losses: Texas Tech, at West Virginia, Arizona State, at BYU, at Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas

12. West Virginia (5-7, 2-7 Big 12)

Rich Rodriguez makes his return to Morgantown after leaving for Michigan in late 2007. Rodriguez is coming off a season where he won the Conference USA championship with Jacksonville State.

Rodriguez has yet to name a starting quarterback for West Virginia, with Nicco Marchiol and transfer Jaylen Henderson as the frontrunners. Offensively, the Mountaineers retain their Preseason All-Big 12 Team running back, Jahiem White, but not much else.

Defensively, they retain not many players at all.  The Mountaineers have a top four transfer class and a middle of the Big 12 freshman class per 247 and On3. Most of the eight players Rodriguez brought from Jacksonville State were from the offensive side of the ball.

West Virginia hosts Pitt in the “Backyard Brawl,” as the two schools were once in the Big East. WVU also visits defending-MAC champion Ohio and hosts Robert Morris in its non-conference schedule.

BOTTOM LINE: Rodriguez begins a rebuild in his second stint as head coach at his alma mater. It will be tough sledding for the old-school coach.

Wins: Robert Morris, at Ohio, Pitt, Utah, and Colorado
Losses: at Kansas, at BYU, at UCF, TCU, at Houston, at Arizona State, and Texas Tech

11. Cincinnati (5-7, 3-6 Big 12)

Cincinnati is coming off a season where it was a win away from reaching a bowl game. They retain their head coach, Scott Satterfield, and field general, Brendan Sorsby, which is crucial to being successful.  

The Bearcats lose their top rusher and receiver, but they retain Preseason All-Big 12 Team tight end Joe Royer. Defensively, they retain a few of their top pieces, including lineman Dontay Corleone, who was named to the Preseason All-Big 12 Team. Cincinnati lacks a top-half transfer class or freshman class, according to 247 and On3.

The Bearcats take on Nebraska in week one at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the Battle Sports Kansas City Classic. That should be a top non-conference game to start the year in one of the loudest stadiums in the world.

BOTTOM LINE: It is hard to see Cincinnati taking a step high enough to contend for the Big 12 championship; there just does not seem to be any buzz or momentum going for the Bearcats. The caveat to that is Cincinnati lost four of its seven losses by one score and could flip some of those games to wins.

Wins: Bowling Green, Northwest State, UCF, Arizona, and BYU
Losses: Nebraska (Kansas City), at Kansas, Iowa State, at Oklahoma State, Baylor, at Utah, and at TCU 

10. Houston (6-6, 4-5 Big 12)

Willie Fritz is in a similar spot to Arizona’s Brennan. Both are second-year coaches with teams that just do not have a direction at the moment. Fritz brings in transfer quarterback Conner Weigman from Texas A&M. The Cougars are one of four teams that have nobody on the Preseason All-Big 12 Team.

Houston brings back a lot of its top offensive pieces, which normally is a good thing, but they had nobody go over 750 scrimmage yards last season. Its defense loses most of its key guys as well. 247 likes Houston’s transfer class putting it third in the conference, but On3 has them in the mid-pack. Both outlets agree that their freshman class is mediocre. 

Houston faces Stephen F. Austin, Rice and Oregon State as its non-conference schedule, along with Colorado in its first five weeks. The Cougars must win all four games if they want a shot at contending, or they still will likely be directionless. 

BOTTOM LINE: Some aspects of Houston are similar to Arizona State (second-year coach, transfer quarterback, and retaining top skill position players), but Weigman is much older than Leavitt was last season, and Arizona State had a self-imposed bowl ban in year one of the Dillingham era. 

Wins: Stephen F. Austin, at Rice, Colorado, Arizona, West Virginia, and at Oklahoma State
Losses: at Oregon State, Texas Tech, at Arizona State, at UCF, TCU, and at Baylor

9. Central Florida (6-6, 4-5 Big 12)

Scott Frost makes his return in his second stint with the Knights after having a 19-7 record from 2016-2017, replacing Gus Malzahn, who left the program to be the offensive coordinator at Florida State. Frost inherits a team that went 4-8 under Malzahn, which is better than when Frost took over in his first stint, when the Knights went winless. Frost brings in a UCF legend, McKenzie Milton, as his quarterback coach.

Frost has yet to name his starting quarterback, as Central Florida went through four different quarterbacks last season. The staff will have to rebuild an offense that struggled last season, with almost everyone departing, including second-round pick running back RJ Harvey, who ran for 1,577 yards last season.

Defensively, the Knights bring back lineman Nyjalik Kelly, who had 9.5 tackles for loss. The Knights have a conference top-half transfer class according to 247 and On3, but a bad recruiting class. The Knights are one of four teams that have zero players on the Preseason All-Big 12 Team. 

UCF hosts North Carolina in week four at the Bounce House, a matchup featuring two head coaches in their highly anticipated first year in the program, Frost and Bill Belichick. UCF also faces CUSA champions Jacksonville State and FCS North Carolina A&T.

BOTTOM LINE: It will be a tough road for Frost to rekindle the magic he had in his first run at UCF. The good news is that it has an easy schedule.

Wins: Jacksonville State, NCAT, Kansas, West Virginia, Houston, and Oklahoma State
Losses: North Carolina, at Kansas State, at Cincinnati, at Baylor, at BYU, and at Texas Tech

Come back next week, when the top half of these rankings and postseason predictions are revealed.