Arizona State athletics director Graham Rossini raised some eyebrows two weeks ago when it was announced that Bobby Hurley would not be fired at the end of another disappointing season of basketball, Hurley's fourth losing season in his past five years in Tempe.
Since then, the decision has been revealed to have largely come down to two things: money (as it always does) and player retention.
As far as the money goes, Arizona State would pay an estimated $4 million to buyout the remaining contract for Hurley. On top of that, they'd need to buyout his assistants' contracts and then hand out new contracts to Hurley's replacement and his new staff.
That total adds up fast, and it comes at a poor time. Rossini is in the process of finalizing a multi-year renovation project for the basketball arena, something that is long overdue, and is also now tasked with spending even more on football after Kenny Dillingham broke through with a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff berth this year.
It's not that Arizona State can't afford it, but it would significantly tighten the purse strings and leave little wiggle room for a whole host of other responsibilities Rossini is juggling, such as landing one of the hottest young coaches in women's basketball this past weekend.
Combine that with what we previously reported as a sudden rise in pro-Hurley rhetoric from several prominent basketball boosters in recent months, and it's easy to see why Rossini is not blowing things up.
However, a big piece of that rise in support for Hurley from boosters was because of the belief that Hurley would retain the bulk of his talented roster from this ill-fated season, one that was at least partially derailed by injuries.
That argument was blown out of the water on Sunday night with the news that 5-star freshman guard Joson Sanon is entering the transfer portal.
This isn't anything new, as the transfer portal is a constant presence for every program's offseason, but Sanon was one such player that some believed would stay put in Tempe for another year if Hurley was retained as the head coach. His decision to leave now is a huge blow for Hurley's prospects.
The Sun Devils also hope to keep fellow 5-star freshman Jayden Quaintance and pair him with local forward Koa Peat, a top 10 prospect in this upcoming class who's kept Arizona State near the top of his list.
That was essentially the crux of the argument for retaining Hurley, outside of the high cost to move on from him: bring back two insanely talented young players, add in one of the nation's best incoming freshmen, and supplement it all with a strong transfer class, something Hurley has generally succeeded in doing in previous cycles.
We now know that Sanon won't be around for this plan, and it's now fair to wonder if Quaintance will follow suit. If both 5-stars are out of the picture, Peat seems all but out of the race too. At which point Hurley will have struck out on the supposed blueprint for turning things around in Year 11.
Of course, this is all speculation right now. Technically, Sanon could even come back, though it's not expected at this moment. Still, though, Sanon's entrance into the portal offers a first devastating blow to the case for keeping Hurley, one that was already met with a tepid response from fans.
If there are other dominoes that fall going forward, it will be increasingly more difficult for Hurley to have any real fan support when next season tips off.