Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils are on the cusp of making history in Tempe. They'll take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12 championship game with a chance to win the conference in their first year as a member. But it's more than that.
The last time Arizona State won their conference was 2007. Predating conference championship games, the Sun Devils finished 10-2 (as they just did this year) in Dennis Erickson's first year as the head coach and shared the Pac 10 championship with USC.
At the same time, Dillingham had just begun his coaching career as a high school senior after tearing his ACL. He enrolled as a student at Arizona State the next year, but continued to coach quarterbacks at his high school.
The last time Arizona State was an outright conference champion came all the way back in 1996, a legendary year for the Sun Devils. Head coach Bruce Snyder led a star-studded team that featured the likes of Jake Plummer, Keith Poole, Derrick Rodgers, and Pat Tillman to a perfect 11-0 regular season finish. They lost to Ohio State, then led by former Sun Devils head coach John Cooper, in the Rose Bowl. Dillingham was barely six years old at the time.
Now, the newly-minted Big 12 Coach of the Year has the chance to secure a conference championship and post the first 11-win season since that 1996 squad. Not only would a win over Iowa State accomplish those historic milestones, it would also clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Sun Devils are narrow favorites, with the spread dropping to 1.5 points after news that star receiver Jordyn Tyson would not play after a season-ending injury. The Cyclones are the toughest opponent Arizona State has faced all year. We asked our experts, as well as Cyclones expert Levi Stevenson of Wide Right Natty Lite, to give their final thoughts on this game.
Austen Bundy
Arizona State is one win away from exorcising a decade's worth of demons and having as close a chance as it's ever had at a national championship since the 1996 season. It would be a shame to see Kenny Dillingham's immaculate season ended on a sour note but the absence of freshman wide receiver Jordyn Tyson will be tough to overcome.
The Sun Devil offense will run (literally) through Cam Skattebo and, in order to avoid becoming trapped in a one-dimensional scheme, other receivers will need to step up for quarterback Sam Leavitt to utilize. On top of that, the defense will need to play it's best to stop a gritty Iowa State offense coached by the creative Matt Campbell.
Is all of that possible? Absolutely. Is it likely? Maybe not as much. But why stop believing now?
Prediction: Sun Devils win 24-20
David Howman
I'm expecting a pretty close matchup between these two, which is exactly what you want in a conference championship game. Iowa State's offense is extremely efficient. They throw a ton of concepts at you and run it all behind a beefy offensive line. Arizona State's defense thrives on forcing mistakes from opponents, but the Cyclones rarely shoot themselves in the foot.
Meanwhile, the Sun Devils offense is extremely reliant on the run, and superstar running back Cam Skattebo makes that a winning game plan any week. They should be even more run-heavy this week with Jordyn Tyson out. The Cyclones defense is also one of the best against the pass in the entire country, but they can't stop the run to save their lives. I see this game turning into a highly competitive shootout between two offenses that love to control time of possession. This should come right down to the end, but I'll side with the hotter team to pull it out in the end.
Prediction: 31-28, Sun Devils
Levi Stevenson
Iowa State comes into this game on a three-game win streak, finally finding some semblance of health after an injury-riddled front seven finally came to a head mid season and led to a couple losses to Texas Tech and Kansas.
The offense is fairly efficient overall and moves the ball down the field fairly well, but Rocco Becht has recently become turnover prone, which ASU will absolutely want to take advantage of.
Defensively, Iowa State touts one of the best secondaries in college football, and will be looking to make life difficult for redshirt freshman QB Sam Leavitt, who will be without his favorite target this weekend.
The front six for Iowa State has been heavily banged up for a good portion of the season, often having to start multiple freshmen due entirely to the rash of injuries. Naturally, this has led to Iowa State struggling to contain the run at times. It’s no secret that Arizona State will feed Cam Skattebo early and often, which is backed by their 60% run play call rate, so I would expect Jon Heacock to have a plan together to limit Skattebo’s impact and force Leavitt to throw into Iowa State’s secondary.
In the end, I believe this game falls almost entirely on the shoulders of Rocco Becht and his ability to limit or prevent turnovers. If Iowa State takes care of the ball and limits its penalties, I don’t see Cam Skattebo being able to single-handedly propel Arizona State past an Iowa State offense that presents a very difficult matchup for the Sun Devil defense.
Prediction: Cyclones win, 34-27