The 15th ranked Sun Devils are getting ready for the biggest game in program history, as they'll travel to Dallas to face off against No. 16 Iowa State in the Big 12 conference championship game. The winner gets an automatic bid in the College Football Playoff, which would represent a first for either program. The loser very likely will be left with a spot in a consolation bowl game.
Much of Arizona State's success this year has been due to the terrific trio of offensive stars that coordinator Marcus Arroyo has been working with, all three of whom received praise from the Big 12 on Thursday.
But while All-Big 12 first team running back Cam Skattebo and the conference's Offensive Freshman of the Year, quarterback Sam Leavitt, will be suiting up for battle Saturday, receiver Jordyn Tyson will not. Tyson suffered an injury in last week's win over the Wildcats and underwent surgery, ending his year regardless of postseason schedules.
That makes things a little harder for the Sun Devils as they prepare to face a Cyclones defense that has often gotten the best of opposing quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Jon Heacock is one of the most underrated defensive minds in the sport, and his penchant for defensive innovation has played a key role in the success that Matt Campbell's tenure in Ames has enjoyed.
Heacock has been coaching since the early 80's, spending most of the 90's and early 2000's at FCS Youngstown State, first as a defensive coordinator and later as head coach. Campbell later hired Heacock as his defensive coordinator when the former led the Toledo Rockets, and he brought Heacock with him to Iowa State.
There, Heacock began to popularize a version of the 3-3-5 defense that makes extensive use of three safety formations. While most defensive coordinators have a package with three safeties, often referred to as an Odd Dime package, it was just that: a sub package that was used only in specific situations.
Heacock made it his base defense as a means of counteracting all the high powered spread and Air Raid offenses he was suddenly going up against in the Big 12. And while most coordinators used their Odd Dime to rotate into a Cover 2 scheme - with two safeties splitting out to cover deep halves while the third rolled into the middle of the field - Heacock chose to make heavy use of quarters coverage with his three safety base defense.
As such, the possibilities for coverage disguises - which safeties drop back deep, which come into the box, or do all three drop deep while a cornerback stays shallow - exploded for Heacock. On the front end, he pairs it with a wide variety of blitzes and stunts. Two years ago, when Iowa State led the Big 12 in nearly every defensive metric, the Cyclones were blitzing just over a fifth of the time while sending their front seven on stunts at nearly the same rate.
Iowa State has stuck with a similar formula this year, and it's done wonders for their secondary. They're allowing an average completion rate of 52% and are giving up 157 passing yards per game, both of which rank in the top 3 in the entire country and easily lead the Big 12. Their 21 takeaways also ranks 22nd in the nation and third in the Big 12. Four different defensive backs - safeties Beau Freyler and Jeremiah Cooper and corners Jontez Williams and Darien Porter - have multiple picks on the year.
The fascinating thing about this year's group for Heacock, though, is that as good as they've been against the pass, they've been exceptionally awful against the run. They're giving up 173 rushing yards a game, third worst in the Big 12 and just a hair better than Arizona, who the Sun Devils just gashed for 281 rushing yards. The five yards a carry they're giving is the 24th most in the nation, too.
That should offer plenty of hope to the Sun Devils. They've been a run heavy offense all year, led by Cam Skattebo. The loss of Tyson should only increase their reliance on Skattebo, who is also their leading receiver behind Tyson.
Obviously, Arizona State will still have to pass the ball, but one of Leavitt's best traits all year has been his ball security. Only four Power 4 quarterbacks have thrown fewer interceptions than Leavitt, and the offense as a whole has the third fewest turnovers on the season.
So much of the Cyclones' defensive game plan is built around taking away the deep ball, and taking away the ball when quarterbacks do try them deep. Leavitt is already used to this, as just 15.6% of his attempts have gone more than 20 yards downfield, one of the lowest rates in the FBS. Even on those attempts, he's thrown just one interception; only three quarterbacks have zero picks on deep balls this year.
Much of Leavitt's pass production comes on screens and play action - he's 14th in play action rate and third in screen rate - both of which are built off the run game from Skattebo. And with how infrequently Heacock loads the box as part of his three safety scheme, that creates a lot of opportunities to run the ball efficiently.
In order to stop Skattebo, Heacock will have to divert from his usual strategy, but that risks the chance that Leavitt uncorks some deep shots. Still, with Tyson out, Heacock might be willing to gamble here. One thing is for sure: it will be a fascinating matchup between the two best teams in the Big 12.