Midway through the season, the Arizona State Sun Devils are sitting at a record of 8-9-1. Not the record that they envisioned coming off a 21-14-2 finish last season, but sitting in a workable 5th place in the NCHC standings at the holiday break.
This break offers the opportunity to take a look at the broader national picture, and explore the NPI rankings.
What is the NPI? The NCAA Power Index is the calculation that replaces the former Pairwise rankings in determining participants in the NCAA tournament. Introduced at the Division III level, the 63 member schools of Division I hockey agreed to implement this ranking system for the 2025-26 season and beyond.
As explained at the start of the season, the NPI and Pairwise rankings are largely similar in their components. The two main pieces are a team's strength of schedule, weighted at 25%, and a team's strength of schedule, weighted at 75%. There are other weighting factors to keep in mind, such as added weight bonus given to road wins over home wins, and overtime wins being weighed less than a win in regulation. Quality win bonuses are also awarded for wins over teams with an NPI at 51 or above, and a minimum win total of 12 for consideration. Teams can also have up to 12 "bad wins" discarded, that is wins over teams that would decrease the winning team's NPI rating.
Confused? You're not alone. The computers have all the math figured out so we don't have to. Before we get in to the current rankings as of today, here's a primer on the structure of the NCAA tournament.
16 teams are selected for the national tournament that begins on March 27th. All six conference postseason tournament champions receive an automatic bid, with the 10 remaining bids given to at-large teams based on the NPI rankings. It is not uncommon to see a No. 1 overall seed not be a postseason tournament champion, most recently seen by Boston College in the 2025 tournament. The concept of "seed stealers" exists as the tournament champions from the CCHA and Atlantic Hockey America often come from outside the top 16 in the NPI, which means for a team to receive an at-large bid, No. 13 in the final rankings is often a safe place to be on Selection Sunday.
Two final wrinkles in the overall seeding before I take my first crack at the projected bracket, regionals are assigned to top seeds based largely on geographic proximity as well as projected ticket sales, with host schools automatically assigned to their region without prejudice. For example with the Denver Pioneers hosting the Loveland regional, they would automatically play close to home regardless of seeding position. Lastly, the typical guideline for the selection committee is to avoid intra-conference matchups in the first round, seed flipping within the same band of four teams as necessary.
With all that said, let's dive in to this week's NPI, granting the autobid to the highest ranked team as needed.
1. Michigan (16-4-0)
The Wolverines have been the strongest team in college hockey this season, second in winning percentage with the 12th ranked strength of schedule.
2. Dartmouth (11-1-0)
Undefeated no more, the Big Green will face a tough challenge to stay at the top of the NPI rankings with a weak ECAC schedule for the second half of the season.
3. Wisconsin (12-2-2)
The Badgers have been a huge surprise in the Big Ten, holding a two point edge over Michigan to lead the conference through 10 games played.
4. North Dakota (14-4-0)
Dane Jackson has revived the North Dakota of old, leading the Fighting Hawks to the NCHC lead at the midway point with an 8-2-0 conference record.
5. Michigan State (12-4-0)
Spartans still riding their 9-game winning streak to sit in the highest No. 2 seed.
6. Denver (12-6-1)
Not quite the same dominant Denver teams of recent years, but never count David Carle out in the second half of the season.
7. Minnesota-Duluth (14-6-0)
The surprise of the NCHC, Scott Sandelin's team sits in an unexpected 3rd in the conference standings, putting pressure on the blue bloods at the top.
8. Penn State (11-5-0)
A true enigma, the Nittany Lions have hit a speed bump after winning 9 of their first 10 games to open the season.
9. Harvard (7-3-1)
Similar to fellow Ivy Leaguers in Dartmouth, the Crimson will be hard pressed to contend with a weaker conference schedule to stay this high up in the rankings.
10. Minnesota State (11-4-5)
Arguably the most exciting team from the 2024-25 season, Luke Strand's Mavericks are setting out to show that they are the clear team to beat in the CCHA.
11. Augustana (9-5-3)
🎥: Jacob Jastrzebski (1 goal, 1 assist) with a penalty shot goal @AugieMHockey 4-4 takes the extra point in a SO win over Minnesota State.
— CCHA (@CCHAHockey) December 14, 2025
📺: https://t.co/yRw1IaFMPQ #CCHAHockey | #WeHoldThePen pic.twitter.com/AOr26bt0Va
The new kids on the block are looking to give the CCHA their first multi-bid season since 2023.
12. Western Michigan (10-6-0)
The defending national champions appear to be working out some of the bumps in their title defense season, but how will they hold up in the back half of a loaded NCHC schedule?
13. Quinnipiac (12-4-2)
The Bobcats are hottest team in the ECAC outside of Dartmouth. Having seen their recent 7 game winning streak come to an end, Rand Pecknold's team will need to stack the wins to stay on the right side of the bubble.
14. Cornell (7-4-0)
Cornell Men’s Hockey 2025 Wrapped 🏒#YellCornell pic.twitter.com/388FhkJuaO
— Cornell Men’s Ice Hockey (@CornellMHockey) December 12, 2025
The first of the true bubble teams, Cornell sits atop the ECAC standings with Dartmouth with 18 points in the conference standings, but with 7 points separating 1st from 7th, it's a wide open race for the Cleary Cup.
15. Providence (8-6-2)
Yes, you're reading this right. The highest ranked team from Hockey East enters the rankings at No. 15, highlighting the overall mediocre performance by one of the top conferences in college hockey.
16. Holy Cross (10-6-1)
4️⃣ 🤝 2️⃣7️⃣#GoCrossGo pic.twitter.com/sV4VPSn2fN
— Holy Cross M. Hockey (@HCrossMHockey) December 10, 2025
The Crusaders sneak into the field of 16 as a seed stealer, bumping Boston College from the rankings as the highest rated representative from Atlantic Hockey. With Bentley and RIT hot on their heels, the race for the likely only seed from the conference will be tightly contested over the rest of the season.
In a stroke of luck (for now), there are no seeding adjustments to be made with this current field as there are no intra-conference matchups to avoid, leading us to the regional assignments. Two teams are designated regional hosts, Denver being tied to the Loveland regional and Holy Cross to the Worcester Regional. By virtue of being the 1v16 matchup, that will force No. 1 overall seed Michigan to travel east for the first round matchup from the DCU Center against Holy Cross. Dartmouth having the next priority in regional assignments would go to the geographically favorable Albany Regional. Wisconsin will stay in the Upper Midwest as the top seed in the Sioux Falls Regional, leaving North Dakota to assume the top seed in the Loveland Regional. First round matchups would be as follows, regional hosts in bold:
Worcester MA Regional (DCU Center)
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Holy Cross
No 8. Penn State vs. No 9 Harvard
Albany NY Regional (MVP Arena)
No. 2 Dartmouth vs. No. 15 Providence
No. 7 Minnesota-Duluth vs. No 10 Minnesota State
Sioux Falls SD Regional (Denny Sanford PREMIER Center)
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Cornell
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Western Michigan
Loveland CO Regional (Blue Arena)
No. 4 North Dakota vs. No. 13 Quinnipiac
No. 6 Denver vs. No. 11 Augustana
What does this all mean for Sun Devil hockey? At No. 35 in the rankings, it's an uphill battle through a loaded gauntlet of NCHC teams after the new year. The strength of schedule will work in the Devils' favor however if they can string together a winning streak like last season.