Where Arizona State stands in Kenny Dillingham contract extension talks

It wasn't even a full week ago that reports emerged of Arizona State being "close" to a contract extension with Kenny Dillingham amid reported interest from Michigan in the Sun Devil head coach. Since that report, rumors connecting Dillingham to Michigan have only intensified, and online chatter from fans has reflected a rapidly growing uneasiness regarding the contract negotiations.

So where do things actually stand?

The College Football Playoff begins tonight, and that's relevant here. No. 8 Oklahoma hosts No. 9 Alabama, and the man most frequently connected to the Michigan opening is Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer. For what it's worth, DeBoer was pretty emphatic in his denial of any interest in the job earlier this week.

Nevertheless, in the event of an Alabama loss tonight, many believe DeBoer will discuss the job with Michigan. And if he does, in fact, decide to stay in Tuscaloosa - or, as some have hinted, if he doesn't get fired following a playoff loss - the belief is that Michigan will put a full court press on Dillingham.

To many, tonight's game will be the point of critical mass for Arizona State. If they can't lock him up before kickoff, the growing concerns over keeping the young coach at his alma mater will ratchet up to about a million.

Let's take a step back, though, and analyze the situation from a few different angles.

How we got here

A year ago around this time, Dillingham was given a contract extension, his first since being hired. Fresh off a Big 12 title and preparing for the Peach Bowl, Dillingham was given a new deal with a bump in pay and a creative solution to a frustrating contract conundrum.

State law prevents Arizona State from giving any coach a contract longer than five years, but athletics director Graham Rossini found a way around it. He added in a provision that rewarded Dillingham with an automatic rollover of one year for each season finishing at 6-6 or better. In other words, every winning season brings an automatic one-year extension; Dillingham has already qualified for that this year.

Still, there were a lot of high profile jobs that opened earlier this year. Penn State, LSU, Florida and others. And Dillingham's name was mentioned for all of them. It's no surprise, given his success, but it prompted a conversation internally about getting a new contract done.

It sounded as if things were moving in that direction following a win over West Virginia. In the postgame press conference, Dillingham disclosed a recent meeting with Rossini and others in the university's administration where it was made clear they were all-in on supporting football.

According to reports, the first draft of an extension was presented to Dillingham the day after the Territorial Cup, the final game of the regular season. That was on November 29 of this year. Tweaks and revisions were then discussed by both sides, as it often goes in these sorts of affairs.

Then the Michigan job came open.

On December 10, seemingly out of nowhere, Michigan fired Sherrone Moore for cause after every other high profile head coaching vacancy had already been filled. DeBoer and Dillingham, both of whom had heard their names floated for other jobs but were working towards an extension of their own, immediately emerged as frontrunners.

Three days later, last Saturday, it was reported that sides were "close" to an agreement on an extension. A few hours later, Dillingham publicly confirmed that his agent had been working on it for several weeks.

That's where we're at now. Just over a week since the Michigan job came open, and just under a week since that initial report of an extension, yet it feels as if it's been months. As each day passes, fan concern multiplies exponentially, but the reality is not much time has passed.

The holdup

According to reports, the conversation around the contract extension changed with the Michigan news.

Dillingham has often been candid about how far behind Arizona State is compared to their Big 12 peers in resources, whether it's money for staff or NIL dollars. He's been an active participant in working to improve that, and he saw this extension as a chance to get firm commitments to improving that.

On Arizona State's side, there is a general agreement from Rossini and university president Michael Crow on where they need to get in order to compete at the level Dillingham desires. However, getting from here to there is the challenge.

Prior to the Michigan job, it's believed that the two sides had reached a general understanding of what could reasonably be done to bridge that gap. But when Moore was fired, and the Internet was set ablaze with Dillingham-to-Michigan rumors, the Arizona State head coach suddenly had renewed leverage. And with it came new demands.

Again, that was just over a week ago. According to those close with the university, Rossini and Crow remain in lockstep with giving Dillingham what he needs, but the logistics and bookkeeping remain a hurdle that has to be cleared before pen is put to paper. And the sudden change in conversation has slowed things down somewhat.

This is hardly unusual, for the record. BYU was preparing for another routine contract extension for head coach Kalani Sitake in the midst of a second consecutive 11-win season, but sudden and intense interest from Penn State changed things. For about 24 hours, it looked as if Sitake had made up his mind to depart his alma mater for a Big Ten blueblood, but the CEO of Crumbl Cookies - a BYU alum - stepped up in the 11th hour to make an offer Sitake couldn't refuse.

Arizona State doesn't count any cookie moguls as part of their alumni base, but they also don't need that kind of money to keep Dillingham. Still, though, it underscores the reality of how agents use leverage to get better deals for their coaches.

What Dillingham wants

What exactly is Kenny Dillingham asking for that's so difficult to provide? Many fans have wondered this, and of course Dillingham isn't going to directly tell us, but he did offer some hints recently.

The three buzzwords Dillingham mentioned were player money, staff money, and longevity.

As for the first two, it's a simple matter of dollars and cents. Arizona State continues to work on their financial support for players, though nothing will ever be enough when sharing a conference with the likes of Texas Tech. Still, approaching the top half of the conference in roster spending would be a step forward.

As for the staff, Arizona State enjoyed unprecedented continuity in staff from last year to this year, but Dillingham wants to ensure he can fend off poachers going forward, as that's been a constant issue for his predecessors.

Longevity seems to be the biggest sticking point. As mentioned, Arizona State's hands are tied on how many years they can extend Dillingham, and they've gone about as far as they can in that regard without a legislative change. Speculation suggests that Dillingham is looking for a massive bump in his buyout, or perhaps striking offset language in the event of his firing, as a way for the school to commit to keeping him on board through turbulent times.

That's the kind of thing that can give some pause. If Arizona State ever decided they needed to fire Dillingham - the idea seems comical now, but it once felt that way for Todd Graham, too - an outrageously high buyout would be an issue. Arizona State can't raise money at a whim the way Texas A&M and LSU did for Jimbo Fisher and Brian Kelly, respectively.

It feels silly to think about firing Dillingham right now, but that's what agents and athletics directors tend to harp on in these negotiations. Finding a common ground that both sides can feel comfortable with seems to be a key ingredient to finalizing the deal.

The Michigan aspect

One thing to consider here is the leverage Dillingham has gained from Michigan's firing of Moore.

Again, it's been just over a week since the job came open. Since then, there have been plenty of questions about how much the university knew about Moore's transgressions prior to firing him, and there's been a growing contingent calling for athletics director Warde Manuel to be fired, or at least not be involved in hiring the next coach.

Michigan also has an interim president at the helm. It remains very unclear who's even in charge at this point, and there doesn't seem to be much insight into who will even be running the coaching search.

We know two things about the search so far, though. We know they hired a search firm, one that has been commonly used in these processes before. And we know they just completed their first interview, doing so with interim head coach Biff Poggi.

Beyond that, concrete information is hard to come by. It sounds as if Michigan is still picking up the pieces from the firing, and are only starting to figure out who they're looking at as candidates. Dillingham's name is surely near the top of that list - it's already been reported his agent was contacted by the search firm - but it's not even a given that Michigan has him as a top target.

Still, the mere possibility is terrifying. Michigan has the kind of money and resources to give Dillingham everything he's asking for, but they also have the money to get out of such a deal whenever they please. They're also not the school Dillingham grew up dreaming about leading.

What happens next

Rossini made an appearance on The Burns and Gambo Show on Thursday, and his comments sounded rather optimistic:

"It's an exciting moment for our program" is not the phrase you expect to hear from someone who is unsure about whether or not the extension will get done. Rossini made it sound as if all that's left is hammering out the finer details, going back to the initial report that a deal was "close."

How long until everything is signed, sealed, and delivered is obviously anyone's guess. There has been plenty of distress around the notion that Crow will be too stubborn to give in to Dillingham's demands. However, that seems unlikely from a president who recently took several moves to financially support the athletics department in ways he's never done before.

Rossini, also an alum, understands that letting Dillingham leave would be catastrophic. It would likely mark the beginning of the end of his tenure, as fan support would level off overnight. It would also become the defining mark of Crow's legacy as university president, undoing all the phenomenal accomplishments he's made for the school. Instead, people would only remember him as the one who chased off their best head coach in decades.

Surely both Rossini and Crow understand this. Dillingham also understands how much this job means to him, and things won't be the same anywhere else. There is strong incentive for both sides to get a deal done; the Michigan opening simply adds a little extra pressure and room for negotiating.

In short: take a breath. Things appear to be heading in the right direction. And, hopefully, good news will be coming very soon.