Everything was lined up perfectly for the Sun Devils, but they let it slip away.
Coming into this past weekend, Arizona State sat in second place in the Big 12 with three games left to go before the conference tournament. They had a chance at first place if West Virginia faltered in their series against Kansas, but the Sun Devils could at least lock up second with a series win over Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys, reigning Big 12 champs and preseason conference favorites, had endured a long and disappointing season. They won just one of their first seven Big 12 games and had just two series wins coming into this season finale series.
That didn't stop them from taking the first game thanks to a blown lead in the seventh inning, a common refrain for the Sun Devils this year. That loss helped West Virginia clinch first place despite falling to Kansas earlier in the night.
Arizona State then dropped the series on Friday, squandering an early 4-1 lead and giving up eight unanswered runs from the fifth to the seventh innings. Losing the series was bad, but getting swept - something the Sun Devils hadn't done all year - would put their NCAA Tournament hopes on life support.
Well, they got swept.
After getting in a hole early, Arizona State battled their way back to go up by one heading into the seventh inning. Then, three consecutive home runs broke the floodgates wide open, and the Sun Devils had no fight left in them.
Presently, Arizona State sits at 45th in RPI. That puts them right on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament; D1Baseball currently has them as the third seed in the Atlanta regional, while On3 listed Arizona State as one of the last four in, getting the third seed in the Tallahassee regional. Either way, the Sun Devils are now at risk of missing the tournament altogether if they can't get at least one win in their conference tournament.
And with brackets now out for that, the impact of the sweep in Stillwater is really coming into focus.
Not only did Arizona State not finish as the second place team, but they dropped all the way to fifth place. That means they draw BYU in the first round, who they swept without much issue earlier this year.
However, their post-BYU path is what's troubling. If they beat the Cougars, Arizona State has to face rival Arizona, who is 4-1 against the Sun Devils this year. Even if they manage to get past the Wildcats, they'd likely draw West Virginia in the semifinals; they avoided the Mountaineers in the regular season, which is good considering how West Virginia dominated nearly everyone they faced.
In a world where the Sun Devils held on to second place by simply taking care of business in Stillwater, they'd have faced the winner of Baylor and Oklahoma State before likely taking on a TCU team they beat 2-1 in a weekend series earlier this year. While nothing is guaranteed, their path to the Big 12 title game was significantly more clear as the two-seed.
As alluded to earlier, Arizona State can likely lock in their first NCAA Tournament appearance in four seasons with just a win over BYU. Still, though, that would be cutting it close. Going at least two rounds deep into the Big 12 tournament would offer much greater certainty, especially given how low BYU's RPI sits right now.
Winning Wednesday's game is an absolute necessity, but it might not be enough after the weekend sweep. In the same vein, that series in Stillwater has greatly decreased the odds that Arizona State can pick up two wins this week in Dallas, putting their tourney chances in serious jeopardy.
The impact of this past weekend could turn out to be season-altering.