The first ever 12-team College Football Playoff begins this weekend, but No. 12 Arizona State will be watching with anticipation to find out who they'll face in the Peach Bowl on January 1. They'll face the winner of No. 3 Texas and No. 16 Clemson, who square off in Austin on Saturday afternoon.
The Sun Devils know one thing for sure: they'll be facing a team that wears orange. But the questioned has been asked of which team is a better matchup for them, and the answer doesn't seem so cut and dry.
The Tigers seem like the obvious answer. They finished 9-3 in the regular season and only made the playoff by virtue of beating No. 10 SMU in the ACC title game. A win, by the way, that Clemson came exceptionally close to throwing away; SMU erased a 17-point fourth quarter deficit to tie the game up with 16 seconds, and it took a heroic effort from kicker Nolan Hauser to seal the win.
That's led many to the opinion that Clemson isn't all that good, and would therefore be a better matchup for Arizona State. But underestimate these Tigers at your own risk. For starters, they're led by head coach Dabo Swinney, the fifth longest tenured head coach in college football.
The win over SMU marked his 180th career victory and ninth conference title. Swinney has also led Clemson to two national titles and is second only to Nick Saban in national championship game appearances in the College Football Playoff era. As good as Arizona State has been this year, it's probably not the best idea to pit Kenny Dillingham and his relatively young staff against Swinner in a win-or-go-home scenario.
Beyond the coach, though, is the elite talent Clemson has. The most notable name is quarterback Cade Klubnik, a former 5-star prospect who has been the Tigers' starting quarterback for the last two seasons. He just finished the season 12th in passing yards and 3rd in touchdowns; only seven FBS starters threw fewer interceptions.
To make things more interesting, Saturday's game will be the continuation of a rivalry of sorts. Klubnik and Longhorns starting quarterback Quinn Ewers have met before in a similar high stakes setting. The two Texans led their high school teams to the state title game back in 2021, when Ewers was the top player in the state and Klubnik was gaining steam as one of the top players in the next year's class.
While Ewers' team entered as the favorite, Klubnik emerged the victor. That helped catapult him to greater fame, though Ewers still finished with a higher overall recruit grade. Klubnik, though, won the matchup and the state title. Now, they meet again in Klubnik's hometown, and Ewers is once again favored.
This time, though, the reasons for Ewers' team being the favorite are clear. While Clemson has the talent and the experience on the coaching staff, Texas has arguably been the best team in college football all year long.
Their first year in the SEC didn't overwhelm the Longhorns. Texas went 11-2 on the year, with both losses coming against No. 2 Georgia. Texas won 10 of their games by multiple scores and finished with the fourth best point differential in the FBS. They didn't just win, they blew teams out of the water.
Ewers was a big part of that, too. Injuries have hampered him somewhat thrioughout the season, which opened the door for next year's presumed starter - Arch Manning - to get some playing time, but Ewers has been a steady facilitator for the Longhorns offense. Head coach Steve Sarkisian calls the offense, and he's emerged as one of the best offensive minds in college football this year.
What really makes Texas so great, though, is their defense. Ranked second in scoring defense, third in yards, and tied for second in takeaway, the Longhorns defense has made life miserable on opponents all year long. Even Georgia, the one team who's been able to beat this team, had their two worst offensive performances - going off of yards per play - against the Longhorns.
The only knock against Texas is their schedule. Officially, they went 4-2 against ranked teams. But those four wins came against teams who didn't finish the season ranked, and two of them (Vanderbilt and Oklahoma) finished with a mere .500 record. ESPN has the Longhorns with the 20th strongest schedule, for reference.
Is it nitpicky? Perhaps, but that underscores how good Texas has been. There's a genuine belief out there that the Longhorns haven't actually beaten anyone good, and that the one good team they've faced all year managed to beat them twice.
That doesn't mean they're a better matchup for Arizona State, though. The Longhorns were in the top five in the rankings all year long for a reason, while Clemson never rose above 10 in the polls. The Tigers are probably the more favorable matchup, but either of these teams will present the toughest challenge yet for these Sun Devils.
Who will you be rooting for on Saturday?