The 2024 season was huge for Arizona State, as they notched their first winning season since 2019, their first double digit win season since 2014, their first conference championship since 1996, and reached the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff.
However, it seems that things could be changing very soon for the landscape of the CFP, which would obviously have repercussions for Arizona State. According to a report from Ross Dellenger of Yahoo Sports, officials from the SEC and Big Ten are meeting today is New Orleans to formulate a consensus on a proposal for a restructured, expanded playoff format.
Athletic directors for the Big 12 are supposedly meeting later this week to discuss these potential proposals, as will the ACC schools next week. But the Big 12 and ACC won't have much choice in the matter, as the SEC and Big Ten have already established their outsized influence over the playoff system before.
The CFP Management Committee will meet at the end of the month in Dallas, at which point it's expected that the new format will be proposed and, in all likelihood, be approved. So what is this new format and what does it mean for the Sun Devils?
Expanding to 14 or 16 teams
According to Dellenger's report, the SEC and Big Ten want to add at least two more teams to the playoff field and potentially go all the way up to 16 teams. The final size of the field would have major impact on bye scheduling, but either way the proposal is expected to include multiple automatic qualifiers for each power conference.
In the event that the proposal calls for just 14 teams, it's expected to include four automatic qualifiers for the top-ranked programs of both the SEC and Big Ten, two automatic qualifiers for the top-ranked teams in both the Big 12 and ACC, and one auto-bid to the top-ranked Group of 5 team.
In this framework, the final spot would be an at-large bid that is explicitly designed for independent Notre Dame, provided that the Fighting Irish finish inside the top 14 spots of the final CFP Top 25 ranking.
If the proposal calls for 16 teams, the framework would remain largely the same - four guaranteed spots for both the SEC and Big Ten, two for the Big 12 and ACC, and one for the Group of 5 - but there would be an additional two at-large bids alongside the spot designated for Notre Dame.
A 16-team playoff would involve no team having a first round bye, while the 14-team playoff would provide byes for the top two seeds. The value of these first round byes came into question last year, as all four teams who had the extra rest were eliminated in the quarterfinals.
What this means for Arizona State
The first takeaway from this potential format change as it relates to the Sun Devils is that it makes it easier for them to get back to the playoff. The 2024 season essentially boiled down to the Big 12 championship game being the only way to reach the CFP from the conference. Expanding to two auto-bids creates a wider path forward.
That said, there's the potential conference aftermath of such a format. If the Big 12 is only guaranteed two playoff spots, would it still make sense to pit their two best teams against each other in a conference championship game, thus ensuring one of them ends with a loss right before the selection decision?
The expectation is that the Big 12, and other conferences, would likely reshape their approach to conference titles. The concept of a play-in game, similar to what the NBA instituted a few years ago, has previously been floated as a potential alternative to the traditional conference championship game.
On a more macro level, while Arizona State would in some ways benefit from a wider path to the playoff, they may feel long term negative effects of their conference essentially accepting its role as a second-tier conference, while the SEC and Big Ten officially cement themselves at the top of the food chain.
According to Dellenger, this dilemma has caused a lot of consternation specifically within the Big 12, and Commissioner Brett Yormark seems to be against the format proposal:
"Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark says his conference has been exploring “predictive analysis” on what different playoff models would mean for conference participation if applied in the recent history of the postseason. “I’ll be armed with data,” he told Yahoo Sports."
Dellenger also says that many athletic directors within the Big 12 are already against the rumored proposals, whether it be 14 or 16 teams, for this exact reason. Voluntarily admitting that the Big 12 is not one of the top conferences in the nation will have a trickle down effect on recruiting, resources, and fan support that the Sun Devils can't risk right now.
Of course, that brings us to the ultimate reason this change might happen: money.
The new playoff format unveiled in 2024 sent nearly 15% of all CFP revenue to the Big 12, a large portion of which was passed down to their one playoff team, Arizona State. More playoff teams means more money, and the potential to reshape conference championship structures could also lead to added revenue generation.
If Arizona State can find themselves routinely in the hunt for a playoff berth, which in turn brings in more money to their program, would that be worth it in the long run? These are the questions they'll need to answer in a few weeks.