Ranking the top half of Big 12 after Football Media Days

In the wake of the Big 12's Football Media Days, last week I unveiled the first half of my rankings for the conference ahead of the 2025 season. Check it out here to see how the bottom half of the rankings went. Now it's time to rank the top half of the Big 12, taking a look at the likely contenders as Arizona State tries to repeat as conference championships.

8. Kansas (7-5, 5-4 Big 12)

Kansas returns its head coach and quarterback combination, Lance Leipold and Jalon Daniels, like the majority of the conference. Kansas leaves a bit to be desired after last season, as five of their seven losses were by one score, similar to Cincinnati.

Offensively, the Jayhawks have lost their top rusher from last season as well as their top three receivers. They hold on to lineman Bryce Foster, who was on the Preseason All-Big 12 Team. They lose a lot of their defense. According to 247 and On3, Kansas has the 7th-ranked portal class and a near-the-bottom freshman class.

Kansas has a week 0 matchup against Fresno State, as the Jayhawks are one of three teams to play on the week. They also go to former Big 8 rival Missouri in week 2.

BOTTOM LINE: Like Cincinnati, Kansas has a long way to climb to the Big 12 Championship. Last year, they showed promise by going 3-1 against ranked opponents last year, spoiling BYU and Colorado’s chances to make the Big 12 championship. They have to flip the one-score games to make that leap.

Wins: Fresno State, Wagner, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Utah
Losses: at Missouri, at UCF, at Texas Tech, Kansas State, and at Iowa State

7. Brigham Young (8-4, 6-4 Big 12)

The Jake Retzlaff situation happened at a bad time for BYU as the Cougars planned for him to be their quarterback throughout the spring, causing them not to get a quarterback in the spring portal. Retzlaff is likely to transfer per numerous outlets, leaving head coach Kalani Sitake with McCae Hillstead and Treyson Bourguet (brother of Arizona State’s Trenton and Coben Bourguet) on the roster. 

Both quarterbacks have some group of five experience with Hillstead at Utah State and Bourguet at Western Michigan, and they were both on the roster last season. The Cougars retain their top rusher, LJ Martin, and their Big 12 Preseason All-Big 12 Team receiver, Chase Roberts, making it easier for BYU to adjust to Hillstead or Bourguet.

Defensively, the Cougars retain two of their best players in linebacker Isaiah Glasker and lineman Jack Kelly. The team ranks last in the Big 12 transfer rankings according to On3 and 247.

The Cougars travel to East Carolina in week four, which could be a trap game as they head two time zones east. The Pirates went 5-1 under then-interim coach Blake Harrell and could be a sleeper team in the American.

BOTTOM LINE: Sitake led the Cougars to a surprising 11-2 season when they were picked 13th in the preseason media poll last year. The Cougars will have to make quick offensive adjustments to their offense if they want to have another run, which will be tough in Sitake’s tenth year at the helm of the program.

Wins: Portland State, Stanford, East Carolina, at Colorado, West Virginia, Utah, at Arizona, and UCF 
Losses: at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, TCU, and at Cincinnati

6. Kansas State (9-3, 6-3 Big 12)

Chris Klieman retains his highly-touted signal caller, Avery Johnson, for another season. The Jayhawks just missed out on the Big 12 Championship game last season and look to take the step up.

Their lone offensive representative on the Preseason All-Big 12 Team is fullback Will Swanson. They retained top receiver Jayce Brown but not much else after that. The defense is spearheaded by Preseason All-Big 12 Team linebacker Austin Romaine, who led the Wildcats in tackles last season, but they do not retain many other players. They have a transfer class that is ranked low in the conference but a top freshman class, setting them up for success in the future.

Kansas State has the aforementioned non-conference game against conference rival Arizona, as well as the trip overseas to play Iowa State in “Farmageddon” in a week zero conference game. The Wildcats also have North Dakota and a tough Army team in their non-conference games.

BOTTOM LINE: Kansas State appears to be in a retooling year that will likely see them reach a bowl game. The key for them to be successful is if Johnson can step up like some think he will. 

Wins: North Dakota, Army, at Arizona (non-con), UCF, at Kansas, Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State, at Utah, and Colorado
Losses: Iowa State (Dublin), at Baylor, and TCU

5. Texas Tech (10-2, 7-2 Big 12)

Like it or not, Texas Tech invested a significant amount of money in its portal class, which enabled it to have the best in the conference and rank in the top three nationally. They retain quarterback Behren Morton and head coach Joey McGuire.

The Red Raiders lose their top rushing and receiving options from 2024, but they retain their second options for both. Defensively, things look good for the Red Raiders as they have three players on the 2025 Preseason All-Big 12 Team as they are spearheaded by linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who was the Big 12 Preseason Defensive Player of the Year, as well as linemen David Bailey and Lee Hunter, all three played in Lubbock last year. They have a middle-of-the-road freshman class.

The Red Raiders have a soft non-conference schedule, facing Arkansas-Pine Bluff (FCS), winless Kent State, as well as the “Pac-2’s” Oregon State, all at home.

BOTTOM LINE: Texas Tech’s experiment could be a model for future schools if the Red Raiders are successful this year. The team going all-in on the transfer portal is a bold one that might not yield the results Lubbock wants. Fans, teams and media alike will watch this program closely to see if money can buy success via the transfer portal.

Wins: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, at Utah, Oregon State, at Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma State, BYU, UCF, and West Virginia
Losses: at Arizona State and at Kansas State

4. Iowa State (10-2, 7-2 Big 12)

Iowa State was the Big 12 conference runner-up last season in a game where it was stomped by Arizona State. Head coach Matt Campbell enters his tenth year leading the program, and his quarterback Rocco Becht returns for another year.

Outside of Becht, the Cyclone offense retains its top two running backs in Carson Hansen and Abu Sama, but they lose their two 1,000-yard receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who are now both with the Houston Texans.

Defensively, they have three Preseason All-Big 12 Team members: lineman Domonique Orange, and defensive backs Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams. The defense looks to be one of the best in the league as they retain other key pieces. The Cyclones have bottom-quarter transfer and freshman classes, according to 247 and On3.

Iowa State renews its “Farmageddon” rivalry with Kansas State in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Ireland. The two teams are the only two teams that have won the Pop-Tarts Bowl, under the Pop-Tarts sponsorship, and the game will have two of the mascots there in what is a highly anticipated game. The week zero game is followed by the Cyclones facing South Dakota and Iowa before visiting Arkansas State. 

BOTTOM LINE: Iowa State will have to find some significant offense to compete at the level they did last season. The Cyclones still should be a bowl team at the minimum.

Wins: Kansas State (Dublin), South Dakota, Iowa, at Arkansas State, Arizona, at Cincinnati, at Colorado, BYU, Kansas, and at Oklahoma State
Losses: at TCU and Arizona State

3. Baylor (10-2, 8-1 Big 12)

Baylor won its last six games in 2024, and the Bears are a sleeper team to watch in 2025. The Bears bring back a lot of their talent, especially on offense.

The Bears retained their quarterback, Sawyer Robinson, along with their top two rushing and receiving leaders, including Preseason All-Big 12 team running back Bryson Washington. Defensively, the Bears bring back their top tackler in linebacker Keaton Thomas, who made the Preseason All-Big 12 Team. Baylor brings in a middle of the Big 12 transfer class, but a top Big 12 recruiting class. 

Baylor has arguably the hardest non-conference schedule in the Big 12 as they face Auburn and Southern Methodist. Both games should be competitive and will be a good indicator of where the Bears stand.

BOTTOM LINE: Head coach Dave Aranda and Robinson will have to prove last year’s late-season run was not a fluke. Baylor has the returning talent to do so and will likely take a step up.

Wins: Auburn, Samford, Arizona State, at Oklahoma State, Kansas State, at Cincinnati, UCF, Utah, at Arizona, and Houston
Losses: at SMU and at TCU

2. Texas Christian (11-1, 8-1 Big 12)

Quarterback Josh Hoover threw for almost 4,000 yards last season for head coach Sonny Dykes. The Horned Frogs are one of three teams that have made the College Football Playoff (the other two being Arizona State and Cincinnati). 

Hoover will have a great target to throw to in wide receiver Eric McAlister, who made the 2025 Preseason All-Big 12 Team. For the rest of the offense, TCU loses its top two running threats and top receiver. Defensively, they bring back some of their talent, led by Preseason All-Big 12 Team defensive back Bud Clark. TCU brings in a weak transfer class according to 247 and On3, but it brings in the top freshman class in the conference per the two outlets. 

Texas Christian has a game against North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Sunday in week one, as there is no NFL football that week. There will be a lot of eyes on that game, and the Horned Frogs will have to take care of business against the Tar Heels and represent the conference well. They also take on SMU in the Battle for the Iron Skillet.

BOTTOM LINE: Hoover will likely continue to play well, but TCU will have to have an offense that stays productive, and it can return to the College Football Playoff.

Wins: at North Carolina, Abilene Christian, Southern Methodist, Colorado, at Kansas State, Baylor, at West Virginia, Iowa State, at BYU, at Houston, and Cincinnati
Loss: at Arizona State

1. Arizona State (11-1, 8-1 Big 12)

Redshirt sophomore quarterback Sam Leavitt headlines the Sun Devils in the 2025 season as he was selected as the preseason Offensive Player of the Year. The Sun Devils' biggest losses are running back Cam Skattebo, defensive back Shamari Simmons and center Leif Fautanu. 

We have already highlighted how the Sun Devils will adjust without Cam Skattebo, and a significant portion of Skattebo’s yards will likely come through the passing game. The Sun Devils have brought in new receiving talent, including redshirt junior Jalen Moss and redshirt freshman Jaren Hamilton, to work with the already established redshirt junior Jordan Tyson. Graduate Ben Coleman moves to the center position. 

Defensively, the Sun Devils have the vast majority of their starters returning. Redshirt senior transfer Kyndrich Breedlove looks to take over Simmons’ position. The Sun Devil defense looks to be one of the best in the Big 12 as it builds continuity, which becomes rarer with more athletes going into the transfer portal. Arizona State also adds Eastern Michigan transfer Jesus Gomez to solidify their kicking woes.

The Sun Devils' non-conference schedule features hosting Northern Arizona, going to Mississippi State and facing Texas State at home. They faced the two FCS opponents last year, which could be something to their detriment, as those teams have tape against Arizona State.

BOTTOM LINE: The Kenny Dillingham-led team is well-positioned to be the second team in Big 12 history to go back-to-back in football titles, the other one being Oklahoma. The Sun Devils have the most players on the Preseason All-Big 12 Team with five (Leavitt, Tyson, Coleman, safety Xavion Alford and defensive lineman C.J. Fite), and they might have more in the postseason team.

Wins: Northern Arizona, at Mississippi State, Texas State, TCU, at Utah, Texas Tech, Houston, at Iowa State, West Virginia, at Colorado, and Arizona
Loss: at Baylor

Postseason, Bowls and College Football Playoff

How the Big 12 sets the championship game is by conference record. Baylor, TCU and Arizona State all have an 8-1 conference record. The trio of teams all have a 1-1 record against each other and did not lose to any other conference opponents, which all have ties to the Big 12’s first three tiebreakers. 

The tiebreaker that would break this tie is the conference win percentage of all conference opponents. The conference win percentage of all Baylor’s conference opponents is 45.67% compared to Arizona State’s 49.38% and 54.32%.

That would leave the Bears sitting out of a conference championship and likely missing the College Football Playoff. TCU had the higher percentage, so they would be the home team in the championship, even though they lost to ASU on the road earlier in the season.

Arizona State had the edge in Tempe, and they will go back-to-back Big 12 champions, sending them to the College Football Playoff. TCU’s season would be good enough to join the Sun Devils in the CFP. The Horned Frogs will likely be defeated in the first round.

As for the Sun Devils, this 12-1 would secure them a first-round bye, and then go on to win their quarterfinal game before losing in the semifinals. Those all depend on matchups, and those could easily change if they are on the “easier” side of the bracket, like Notre Dame was last season.

As for the other teams' bowl selections, the bowl committees will likely choose the teams based on record. Starting with Baylor, they get to stay in Texas as they will play in the Valero Alamo Bowl in San Antonio. Iowa State will start and end its season with Pop-Tarts as it will try to go back-to-back in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

Texas Tech will stay in Texas and play in the Texas Bowl in Houston. Kansas State will go to Memphis to play in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. BYU will play in the Rate Bowl in Phoenix. Kansas will play in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth. UCF and Houston will be placed in other bowls, as the Big 12 has only direct ties to the six mentioned.

The Big 12 is going to have an interesting brand of football with its unpredictability, similar to the NFL. Maybe a better way is just pulling names out of a hat and predicting things that way, with how this league has been over the past few years. There is one guarantee, though: the Big 12 ought to get two bids, and the committee learned that they made a mistake by forgoing BYU last year.

I look forward to coming back to this at the end of the season to see how well I did. Predictions are meant to be fun, and if I get most of this right, I will claim I am a genius, and if not, I still will, but in other fields. I cannot wait for the college football season to begin!