First look at Arizona as Arizona State prepares for Territorial Cup

Welcome, Sun Devils fans, to hAte week.

It's officially the week of the Territorial Cup, which stands alone as the oldest rivalry trophy in college football history and, similarly, one of the oldest rivalries in the sport. The first game between Arizona State and Arizona came in 1899, before Arizona was even a state. Since then, this rivalry has become one of the most heated rivalries in college football, and it's always the most important game of the year for both teams regardless of record.

This year, though, it means just a little bit more for Arizona State. They come into this game at 9-2 and sitting in the driver's seat of the Big 12. Technically, they're in a four-way tie for first place right now, but tiebreakers are currently going their way. With a win over the hated Wildcats, their odds of reaching the conference championship game would shoot up to 98.05%, a near certainty.

That would mean a legitimate shot at reaching the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff. To secure such an opportunity while beating such a bitter rival would be a cherry on top of what's been a marvelous year for the Sun Devils. Plus, it would snap a two-game losing streak to Arizona, and the Sun Devils' last win in this rivalry was even vacated as a result of the NCAA recruiting scandal.

So what can they expect from the Wildcats this Saturday? The answer is probably not much, as Arizona's season has diverged from expectations as radically as Arizona State's season has.

Last year's Wildcats broke through in Jedd Fisch's third season as head coach, going 9-3 in the regular season and placing third in the Pac 12, just narrowly missing out on a conference title game appearance. Fisch then left the program late into the hiring cycle to take the same job for the Washington Huskies when their head coach, Kalen DeBoer, left for the Alabama job.

Arizona pivoted to San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan, who had been a finalist for the job when Fisch was first hired. Brennan had long been a respected Group of 5 coach who took over a dysfunctional Spartans program and brought them to relevance. He won seven games in three of his final four years there, which is a Herculean achievement for that program. Brennan was viewed as long overdue for a Power 4 job and his ties to the Wildcats - he was a graduate assistant in Tucson at the turn of the century - made this the perfect fit.

Or so we thought. Brennan's tenure got off to a rocky start. Just a week after his hiring, Arizona fired their athletic director who had hired Brennan. About a month later, the university president announced his departure. And Brennan made the curious decision to not bring either of his coordinators with him from San Jose State. Instead, he added Dino Babers as the offensive coordinator and Duane Akina as the defensive coordinator, neither of whom had called plays in at least a decade and a half.

Flash forward to the final week of the season and Brennan's Wildcats have fallen to 4-7 after being picked to finish fifth in the Big 12 preseason media poll. Babers was stripped of play calling duties halfway through the year, with tight ends coach Matt Adkins taking over with no real improvement. And the Wildcats have already been eliminated from bowl contention after getting blown out by TCU last week.

There's not much excuse for the sharp regression either. Fisch brought several Wildcats players with him to Washington - where he's sitting at 6-5 ahead of a season finale against No. 1 Oregon - but Brennan managed to hold onto the biggest ones. Star quarterback Noah Fifita and likely first round receiver Tetairoa McMillan stayed put, as did star offensive tackle Jonah Savaiinaea. Linebackers Jacob Manu and Justin Flowe, as well as standout cornerback Tacario Davis, also returned for a defense that largely led the way for last year's team.

Despite all that, the Wildcats have been terrible. Their defense is ranked 104th in scoring and 94th in yards allowed. The offense is just as bad, ranking 107th in points per game and 87th in yards. The most troubling part is what they do rank high in: tied for 21st in most turnovers on the year. Only seven Power 4 quarterbacks have a lower passer rating than Fifita, whose 12 interceptions are second-most in the entire nation.

It's not hard to see why Arizona State is a 9.5-point favorite in this one despite going on the road to a historically tough place to play. Still, the Territorial Cup is rife with instances where these teams play each other close regardless of records, which is one of the many reasons this rivalry remains one of the best in college football.

The Sun Devils haven't lost a game since October 19, and that was a road game without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt. The last time they lost with Leavitt playing was September 21 in Lubbock, Texas. Can they keep the momentum going and bring the Territorial Cup back to Tempe? We'll find out soon enough.