The Sun Devils just pulled off a big win over BYU at home this past week, and they did it in part with a very creative defensive scheme that bottled up the Cougars' explosive but occasionally erratic offense. This week, they'll face a similar style of offense when they take on bitter rival Arizona.
When the Wildcats lost their head coach, Jedd Fisch, to Washington, they pivoted to San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan, who had turned the Spartans into a consistent bowl team for the first time in years. Brennan then made the curious decision not to bring his longtime Spartans offensive coordinator, Kevin McGiven, with him to Tucson.
Instead, he hired Dino Babers, who had just been fired after eight seasons as the Syracuse head coach. Babers, a 63-year old coach, has a long history in the region. His second coaching job came as a graduate assistant for the Sun Devils, and he also coached the Wildcats from 1995 to 2000, with the last three seasons as the offensive coordinator. His final season running the offense also overlapped with Brennan working as graduate assistant under Babers, making an obvious connection.
Still, Babers hadn't coached on the West Coast in any capacity since 2007, and he hadn't called plays since 2002 at Texas A&M. But Babers' offenses as the head coach for Eastern Illinois, Bowling Green, and Syracuse featured fast-paced, up-tempo schemes that made heavy use of RPO's before the concept was overly popular. His hire in Tucson was a little shocking, but it wasn't entirely irrational.
Once the season started, though, the most pessimistic views of the hire became reality. The Wildcats returned their top two offensive playmakers - quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan - but the offense regressed in a major way. Last year's group finished the year 18th in scoring and 20th in yards, but heading into the final week of regular season play the Wildcats are 107th in scoring and 87th in yards. While Arizona saw a handful of players follow Fisch to Washington, their biggest losses on offense were Jacob Cowing and Tanner McLachlan, both of whom entered the draft.
The reason for the stark drop-off comes down to the scheme, and specifically Babers. HIs offenses have always been based out of the veer and shoot scheme that Art Briles popularized at Baylor, where Babers coached receivers for four years. The fundamental goal of that offense is to run the ball out of extra wide formations - Josh Heupel at Tennessee has adopted a supercharged version of this scheme - and put defenses in conflict as to how many defenders to put in the box on each play. Pairing that with fast tempo has often led to defenses simply falling apart.
The problem is that while Babers has employed this scheme in the past, he was never the one responsible for calling the plays or building the game plan. On top of that, Babers was trying to install an offense that was very different from Brennan's, who has opted for a more traditional spread at San Jose State. So when Brennan made the decision to take play calling duties away from Babers after just three games, it made sense that he chose tight ends coach and pass game coordinator Matt Adkins to take over that responsibility.
Adkins followed Brennan from San Jose, having been a graduate assistant on Brennan's inaugural staff as head coach. He was eventually promoted to tight ends coach and has been viewed as a rising star under Brennan. But his audition as the offensive play caller hasn't gone very well, as the Wildcats lost their next five games and have averaged 20.1 points per game with Adkins at the helm.
The most concerning trend for the offense hasn't just been an inability to score points, though. Fifita, who was named last year's Pac 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, has taken a huge step back. Only two quarterbacks in the entire nation have thrown more interceptions, and Fifita's 84.3 passer rating ranks as the eighth-worst among all Power 4 starters. McMillan has still played at a high level, currently second in the nation in receiving yards and tied for 14th in yards per reception, but the offense has fallen apart outside of feeding their top receiver.
Another issue that Arizona has encountered has been keeping Fifita upright. HIs 27 sacks this year rank 10th among Power 4 starters, and the Wildcat quarterback is the second-most pressured quarterback in the Big 12. Considering that nearly half of Fifita's interceptions have come under pressure, it's easy to see how this offense is struggling.
Arizona State defensive coordinator Brian Ward runs a fairly zone heavy scheme, often aiming for 2-on-1 matchups against top receivers instead of simply playing man coverage. McMillan's best games this year have come against man coverage, so expect Ward to stick to his tendencies when trying to limit McMillan's impact.
That's the key to stopping this offense, too. Arizona has been downright inept when they can't get McMillan going, and they haven't even been all that great when he does play well either. Ward's scheme has excelled in recent weeks at creating pressures with simulated looks, and should see similar success against Fifita too. Forcing turnovers and limiting McMillan's impact in this one will be the key to beating the Wildcats.