The Sun Devils may have only moved up one spot in the most recent CFP rankings, but the task that lies ahead is clear. If they can knock off the No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones, Arizona State will reach the playoff for the first time in program history. If not, they'll be settling for a bowl game.
This will be just the second time Iowa State has ever appeared in the Big 12 title game. The first was in 2020, during the protracted Covid year, when the Cyclones finished 8-2 before narrowly losing to Oklahoma. The Cyclones have never won the Big 12 and, in fact, their last conference championship came all the way back in 1912, when they belonged to the Missouri Valley Conference.
That game was played just a few months after Arizona became a state. Arizona State, then known as the Tempe Normal School, was undergoing a period in which they had suspended their football program entirely. The football team would return two years later in 1914, but that gives you an idea of just how barren Iowa State's history has been.
The recent rise to glory can be entirely attributed to head coach Matt Campbell. Known as a program and culture builder, Campbell went 35-15 as the Toledo head coach before taking the top job in Ames. He went 3-9 in his first year but then the Cyclones punched their ticket to five straight bowl games for the first time in program history.
Campbell, who has an offensive background primarily coaching the offensive line, has seen a few different offensive coordinators come and go during his tenure. This season marked his third coordinator in as many years, with longtime assistant Taylor Mouser promoted to the role when last year's coordinator left for a job with the Los Angeles Rams.
Still, the Cyclones' offensive identity has remained the same under Campbell's watch. There are three main components that make up a Campbell offense: multiplicity, consistency, and physicality.
Multiplicity
Nobody is going to confuse Iowa State's offense for a pro style scheme, but Campbell has prided himself on being able to run a wide variety of concepts. On any given series, you could see Iowa State cycle between a four receiver set, play with two tight ends, and then go under center for a jumbo package. They have just about everything in their playbook, which allows the offense to be tailored to the personnel.
Back when running back David Montgomery and tight end Charlie Kolar were around, the offense was run-heavy and schemed up touches for their tight end. Last year, when freshman quarterback Rocco Becht was unexpectedly pushed into the starting lineup a few weeks before the season opener, the Cyclones adopted a run-first approach until Becht began gaining some confidence.
This year, with Becht coming off a strong finish last season, Iowa State has embraced it. They're not the most pass happy offense out there, but the Cyclones are 44th in pass attempts per game, an unusually high number for them.
Much of that has been filtered through their two top receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Both crossed the 1,000 yard mark last week, finishing up a strong year through the air. The Cyclones' third leading receiver is tight end Gabe Burkle with just 208 yards and zero touchdowns. In other words, Higgins and Noel are the passing offense. Still, defenses have been unable to slow them down because of all the creative ways Iowa State schemes them open.
Consistency
Consistency has always been a key component of the Cyclones under Campbell. One of the more analytically inclined coaches in college football, Campbell has prioritized process over results, and it's helped lead to very consistent teams year in and year out.
That's reflected in the fact that Iowa State has become bowl eligible now in seven of the last eight years, and in the way Higgins and Noel continue to beat defenses despite everyone knowing Becht is throwing their way.
Iowa State has also been great about not shooting themselves in the foot. They've been in the top three in the Big 12 in fewest turnovers for five of the last six seasons. They're also consistently one of the least penalized offenses in the nation, with only three teams having fewer flags thrown on them this year.
Simply put, the Cyclones offense is not going to beat itself. They play fundamentally sound football and don't make the same mistake twice. Arizona State has climbed up to 38th in takeaways with a strong finish on defense, but they'll be hard pressed to force turnovers this week.
Physicality
As you would expect with a former offensive line coach as head coach, the Cyclones play with a physical style that begins in the trenches. Their smallest starting offensive lineman is left guard Trevor Buhr, who is listed at 315 pounds. Their other four starters are all listed at 320 or heavier, with left tackle Jalen Travis tipping the scales at 340 pounds.
That's led to a running game that can be devastating at times, especially when Iowa State wants to kill the clock. They've gone with a running back committee this year consisting of Carson Hansen, Abu Sama, and Jaylon Jackson.
Hansen, who leads the team with 618 ruhsing yards on 125 carries, is more of the between the tackles, downhill runner. Sama, with 547 ruhsing yards on 113 carries, plays more on the outside and has more home run threat speed. Jackson is a more slender runner who functions primarily as a change of pace back, and he's compiled 373 yards on 89 carries.
In the same way that Iowa State runs a wide variety of formations, they have also been using an extensive list of running schemes to get the most out of this committee. It's all been aided by a physically dominant offensive line, which has helped all three backs hit 200+ yards after contact on the year and each of them has hit double digit runs of 10+ yards.
The Sun Devils have the second best run defense in the conference, behind only Kansas State. The Wildcats didn't have much luck against the Cyclones last week, as Hansen and Sama combined for 139 rushing yards just 28 carries. Stopping the run is the key to getting this ball-control offense out of its rhythm, but that's not going to be easy against such a physical and consistent group.