It all comes down to this. The final week of regular season play is upon us.
As we hurtle towards Thursday's series openers, the race for the Big XII regular season championship is still alive. Four teams still claim they have a shot at the title and the #1 overall seed in the Big XII tournament:
West Virginia: 19-6
Arizona State: 18-9 (2 GB)
Kansas: 17-10 (3 GB)
TCU: 17-10 (3 GB)
Scoreboard watching will be in effect for the Sun Devils as a critical series between the Jayhawks and Mountaineers in Morgantown will have an impact on the Devils' seeding. Meanwhile the Sun Devils will be on the road at Oklahoma State for a series that they need to sweep and get some help from the Jayhawks to win the regular season conference championship.
Currently, Arizona State is assured of finishing in no worse than 5th place. So what needs to happen this weekend for the Devils? Let's start with the easiest solution. With a sweep, Arizona State will be guaranteed no worse than the #2 seed in the Big XII tournament, and would win the conference regular season title outright if West Virginia is swept by Kansas.
If the Devils win two of three games, they will clinch #2 ahead of TCU and Kansas. Even if the Horned Frogs sweep on the road at Utah or Kansas sweeps West Virginia, the Devils hold tiebreakers over both by virtue of series wins.
If the Devils win two of three games, they would once again win the regular season title if Kansas sweeps West Virginia due to the aforementioned tiebreakers. Arizona State would also finish ahead of TCU if the Horned Frogs sweep on the road at Utah, due to the Devils winning the series at TCU to open Big XII play. Worst case scenario, two wins will clinch a #2 seed in the conference tournament.
Losing two of three games expands the possibilities in a negative way.
Arizona State would need to hope for Kansas and TCU to both win no more than two of three games in their respective series, plus would need Arizona to lose two of three at Houston to remain in second place. Due to the Devils series loss in Tempe to the Wildcats in April, Arizona holds the tiebreaker if they were to win two of three against the Cougars.
If Kansas State sweeps Cincinnati, the Devils would hold the tiebreaker over the Wildcats. The Devils did not play Kansas State this season, so that tiebreaker would be settled with the Devils better record against Kansas (2-1 vs. 0-3 for Kansas State). The scenarios to maintain a Top 4 seed and first round bye with a 1-2 weekend in Stillwater: Kansas AND TCU sweep AND Arizona loses series 1-2 to Houston, OR Kansas OR TCU sweep AND Arizona wins series 2-1 over Houston.
If, in the worst case scenario, the Devils are swept at Oklahoma State, there is still a path to maintain the #2 seed. The Devils would need some help to accomplish this, needing Kansas, TCU, and Arizona to all go 1-2 in their series, plus Kansas State go no better than 2-1. If any of those four teams sweep, the Devils finish at #3, two of four sweeping puts the Devils at #4, and any three sweeps moves the Devils out of bye position.
The 2025 Big XII tournament opens on Wednesday May 21st from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. The top 12 teams in the conference make this single-elimination tournament. The bottom eight teams will open the tournament with play-in games for the right to face the top four teams in the quarterfinals on Thursday May 22nd.
All games will stream on ESPN+ (subscription required), with three play-in games, two quarterfinal games, and the championship on Saturday May 24th airing on ESPN's family of networks.