Most, if not all, Arizona State fans chalked up the 2025-26 men's basketball season up to be a failure.
The Sun Devils, led by now-former head coach Bobby Hurley, finished their second campaign in the Big 12 Conference with a 17-16 record and a cringe-worthy second-round exit from the conference tournament.
That resume ultimately was not impressive enough to qualify for the NCAA Tournament - as expected - but fans may not realize the team was actually closer to the field of 68 than it appeared.
ASU hoops would've qualified for March Madness in an expanded field
Hurley's squad finished 67th and 73rd in the all-important KenPom and NET rankings, respectively, once Selection Sunday was complete. ASU was not among the infamous "First Four Out" or "Next Four Out," the eight teams ranked 69-76 according to the NCAA Selection Committee's metrics and just missed the cut.
Without winning the Big 12 tournament, a record with less than 20-wins is already an automatic disqualifier in the committee's eyes. So it's no surprise the Devils weren't part of the bubble discussion. But if the tournament field was just a little bigger and included those eight spots, fate would've had a different path for ASU.
According to analysis of a simulation by Sports Illustrated, if the NCAA Tournament was a 76-team field - which has been heavily discussed as a possibility for future iterations - Arizona State would 've qualified as literally the last team in.
The Devils would've participated in an expanded version of the "First Four" and faced California (20-11) for the 13th seed in their respective region and a berth in the first round of the tournament.
But we can play the hypothetical game until the cows come home. Arizona State didn't do enough this year to win games it should've and potentially sent Hurley out with a bang instead of a whimper. What makes things even more frustrating is that this team had a resume worthy of tournament consideration.
If Arizona State would have just won a few more games, they probably would have been in the tournament. They had a handful of good wins against Texas, Santa Clara, Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas Tech. Just lost too many games to even be considered. https://t.co/91VMNMJLtD
— Sam Ficarro (@SamFicarro) March 16, 2026
ASU defeated five teams that finished in the Top 40 of KenPom and Top 50 in the NET rankings: Texas, Santa Clara, Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas Tech. All but the Sooners qualified for the NCAA Tournament and the Jayhawks and Red Raiders are poised to make deep runs.
It was the Devils' inability, however, to win the games they should've that tanked their credibility.
Getting swept by Colorado (70th in KenPom), an embarrassing early loss to Oregon State (177th in KenPom) and failing to top Baylor, which finished last in the Big 12, were likely the heaviest anchors attached to ASU's ankles. If it won those games, I think we're sitting here talking about the team either squeaking into Dayton yet again or accepting a No. 1 seed in the NIT.
Really, this is a credit to the effort Hurley put into his final season - even when it looked like the wheels came off mid-year - to have the team finish with a winning record and be a fringe tournament contender. Most coaches that are shown the door are usually leaving behind a much messier locker room.
It was time for Hurley to go, don't get me wrong, but he still deserves a respectful salute on his way out of Tempe for giving us hope that this program isn't dead and buried.