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ASU Basketball: After Oregon loss, are the Sun Devils still in the NCAA Tournament field?

By Trevor Booth

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 15: Victor Bailey Jr. #10 of the Oregon Ducks and Luguentz Dort #0 of the Arizona State Sun Devils go after a loose ball during a semifinal game of the Pac-12 basketball tournament at T-Mobile Arena on March 15, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Ducks defeated the Sun Devils 79-75 in overtime. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 15: Victor Bailey Jr. #10 of the Oregon Ducks and Luguentz Dort #0 of the Arizona State Sun Devils go after a loose ball during a semifinal game of the Pac-12 basketball tournament at T-Mobile Arena on March 15, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Ducks defeated the Sun Devils 79-75 in overtime. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /
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PITTSBURGH, PA – MARCH 15: A general view of the court with March Madness signage is seen prior to the start of the game between the OklahomaSooners and the Rhode Island Rams in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at PPG PAINTS Arena on March 15, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – MARCH 15: A general view of the court with March Madness signage is seen prior to the start of the game between the OklahomaSooners and the Rhode Island Rams in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at PPG PAINTS Arena on March 15, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

BracketMatrix

This is the site to keep an eye on. BracketMatrix.com uses an extensive mock bracket database – with independent and national sources – to build an averaged ‘matrix’ predicting NCAA Tournament seeds.

As of now, the Sun Devils are still fine.

Of 104 brackets, ASU appears in 86 (83 percent) of them, averaging as a No. 11 seed. Before the Oregon loss, the Sun Devils were a No. 10 seed, avoiding the ‘Last Four In’ slot currently predicted by analysts like CBS’ Jerry Palm.

Now, the website does not reflect the opinions of the selection committee. In some of these brackets, ASU is predicted as high as a No. 7 seed whereas others saw them completely out.

However, it does (as the next slide breaks down) provide favorable odds for the Sun Devils’ at-large consideration. For now, here’s what this matrix tells us.

  • ASU’s quality wins matter.
  • The Pac-12 has a chance to be a three-bid league.
  • This is better positioning than last year.
  • Despite Oregon’s win over Washington, ASU is likely in, as long as it it not the last team on the bubble.

If the bracket were formed now, ASU would probably be in. But the gap has thinned.

With Oregon winning to the Pac-12 Championship, the Ducks took an at-large bid off the table. They have the conference’s automatic bid, meaning Washington will likely qualify for the tournament as an at-large.

We saw this happen earlier in the week, when Saint Mary’s upset Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Championship. Luckily, Buffalo beat Bowling Green in the MAC title game and Utah State won the Mountain West, leaving more bids on the table.

Now, it’s a wonder if the Sun Devils are better positioned than bubble teams like Temple, St. John’s and TCU.

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