BracketMatrix
This is the site to keep an eye on. BracketMatrix.com uses an extensive mock bracket database – with independent and national sources – to build an averaged ‘matrix’ predicting NCAA Tournament seeds.
As of now, the Sun Devils are still fine.
Of 104 brackets, ASU appears in 86 (83 percent) of them, averaging as a No. 11 seed. Before the Oregon loss, the Sun Devils were a No. 10 seed, avoiding the ‘Last Four In’ slot currently predicted by analysts like CBS’ Jerry Palm.
Now, the website does not reflect the opinions of the selection committee. In some of these brackets, ASU is predicted as high as a No. 7 seed whereas others saw them completely out.
However, it does (as the next slide breaks down) provide favorable odds for the Sun Devils’ at-large consideration. For now, here’s what this matrix tells us.
- ASU’s quality wins matter.
- The Pac-12 has a chance to be a three-bid league.
- This is better positioning than last year.
- Despite Oregon’s win over Washington, ASU is likely in, as long as it it not the last team on the bubble.
If the bracket were formed now, ASU would probably be in. But the gap has thinned.
With Oregon winning to the Pac-12 Championship, the Ducks took an at-large bid off the table. They have the conference’s automatic bid, meaning Washington will likely qualify for the tournament as an at-large.
We saw this happen earlier in the week, when Saint Mary’s upset Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Championship. Luckily, Buffalo beat Bowling Green in the MAC title game and Utah State won the Mountain West, leaving more bids on the table.
Now, it’s a wonder if the Sun Devils are better positioned than bubble teams like Temple, St. John’s and TCU.