ASU Basketball: Bubble Watch entering first week of March

NCAA, CBS & ESPN

Earlier in the week, ASU received a shoutout from one of the nation’s best sources – former ESPN and current NCAA analyst Andy Katz.

On the NCAA’s official March Madness Twitter page, the Sun Devils were one of Katz’s five notable teams. He praised them for their recent three-game win streak and quality victories, giving them in a first round bye (No. 11 seed) in a bracket to face No. 6 Iowa. Here’s the full video below:

https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1100507424161779719

This is important for a few reasons. For one, national outlets are typically on board with Arizona State’s resume. It also brings attention to the Sun Devils’ body of work in comparison to other bubble teams.

However, that can be a blessing and a curse.

Last week, we looked at two of the most reputable bracketologists – ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS’ Jerry Palm. Both had ASU in their latest brackets, with Lunardi considering the Sun Devils to be one of the ‘Last Four Byes’ while Palm had them as one of the ‘Last Four In.’

As of Saturday, both men agree where the Sun Devils stand – on the cusp, playing in Dayton, Ohio as a No. 12 seed. Lunardi has ASU facing Utah State – a team it beat in November – whereas Palm has the Devils playing NC State from the ACC.

ESPN also releases a ‘Bubble Watch,’ analyzing the state of teams from each conference. Again, Washington and ASU were the only teams listed for the Pac-12, with the Sun Devils as one of the teams with ‘Work to do.’

Here’s an evaluation from insider John Gasaway on March 1, hours after the 28-point loss to Oregon.

"“Bubble Watch could be persuaded to take Arizona State losing at Oregon in stride, relatively speaking. The Ducks actually look pretty good in NET terms, and a loss in Eugene is categorized as a Quad 1 defeat. That said, the Sun Devils were hammered 79-51, and there is a danger in Bobby Hurley‘s team letting its own NET ranking fall too far. Entering the game against UO, Arizona State was ranked No. 63, meaning ASU was already near the bottom of the at-large-hopeful bin along with the likes of Seton Hall and Minnesota. The committee isn’t just going to go down the list of rankings from Nos. 1 to 68, of course, but a number dropping into the 70s would not be a positive development for a team that started the week slotted for a No. 11 seed.”"

Palm went as far as to dedicate a column based on Thursday’s results in the Pac-12, slamming both ASU and Washington for their misfortunes. The outlook wasn’t good for the Sun Devils:

"“Thursday was a very bad night for the Pac-12. Arizona State, which is hanging on to a bracket spot by a thread, lost at Oregon 79-51. Meanwhile, league leader Washington got dumped at last place Cal, which ranked 275th in the NET entering the game. For a team with no quality wins, that is an eyesore on the tournament resume.” Washington dropped to a No. 9 seed after the loss and Arizona State is in the First Four. You now have to consider the possibility of the Pac-12 being a one-bid league.”"

As of Saturday, ASU’s NET ranking was No. 68, falling below Oregon (67) and plenty of its bubble contemporaries. As Gasaway mentioned, the Sun Devils’ NET ranking won’t be the end-all, be-all, but it isn’t a good sign when comparing to teams like Seton Hall, Temple and Alabama, who rank higher in the system.

It is said that winning is the best cure in team sports, and at this point, that can’t be stressed enough for ASU.