ASU Basketball: Bubble Watch entering first week of March
By Trevor Booth
March is here, but ASU basketball is in a precarious spot for an NCAA Tournament bid. Here’s where the Sun Devils stand in the latest metrics.
Bury the hatchet, forgive and forget. Both are valuable lessons, and now they must become Arizona State’s battle-cry.
The Sun Devils (19-9, 10-6 Pac-12) didn’t help their NCAA Tournament hopes Thursday night, being wiped off the floor by Oregon, 79-51, at the Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene. It was ASU’s worst loss in the last two seasons, and the reasons were prevalent.
The Devils shot 3-of-24 (12.5 percent) from 3-point range, their lowest percentage of the season. After improving in recent weeks, ASU rescinded its free throw progress, making just 14 of its 26 attempts.
And of all setbacks, none was more surprising than the woes on the glass. The Sun Devils are the nation’s seventh-best rebounding team at 40.5 per game, but were clearly outmatched by the Ducks, losing the battle 39 to 23.
Despite Oregon losing its last three, the Ducks did qualify as a Quadrant 1 opponent in the NET Rankings. This means ASU avoided a ‘bad’ loss, but it also deflected the opportunity of its highest-ranked game remaining on the regular season schedule.
Before the game, the Sun Devils were in a good place, ranking in 88 percent of NCAA Tournament bracket predictions while often holding a first-round bye. Today, ASU appeared in 73 of 105 (69 percent) of brackets available on BracketMatrix.com, showing how each loss can provide a negative effect.
The Devils’ two remaining opponents (Oregon State, Arizona) qualify as Quadrant 2 opponents, but they are arguably the more difficult games. The Beavers are one spot below ASU at third in the Pac-12 standings, and the Wildcats have won three straight – two with freshman Brandon Williams back in the lineup.
Simply put, the bubble has shrunk for ASU. Here’s the latest on where the Sun Devils’ NCAA Tournament chances stand before the final two games of the regular season.