ASU Football: Best, average and worst case scenarios against USC

ASU football hopes to snap a two-game losing streak and pick up their first road win against USC. Here are three scenarios that could play out Saturday afternoon.

The point is simple – Arizona State needs a win.

Following their 20-13 defeat to Stanford last Thursday, the tone was disheartening. The loss was the Sun Devils’ fourth defeat by exactly seven points. The difference in the game was, again, one or two plays that could’ve changed the outcome.

It’s easy to look at Manny Wilkins‘ checkdown throw to Eno Benjamin that expired time in the fourth quarter as the deciding play. But there was more to it than that. There were turnovers inside the 30-yard line, a dropped interception and chunk plays which prevented ASU from converting on opportunities.

This week, the Sun Devils hope to cash in those chances. The challenge won’t be easy, as they’ll have to steal a win from a USC team that leads the Pac-12 South and holds a huge home field advantage at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Without further ado, let’s dive in to the three scenarios for ASU’s travels to the “City of Angels.”

Best Case Scenario: A Much-Needed Victory

After facing a physical, ground-and-pound style in Stanford, the Sun Devils will transition to elite athletes and playmakers in USC. With third string quarterback Jack Sears under center for the Trojans, ASU creates the three turnovers Danny Gonzales hoped for en route to a double digit victory on the road.

The additional opportunities give Wilkins and the offense time to ease in. Benjamin resurges with 100 rushing yards, opening up routes and consistent targets of multiple receivers.

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Without the presence of JT Daniels and Cameron Smith, the Sun Devils execute with the opportunities they’re given. Fingers might be pointed at those two absences, but limiting mistakes would be a goal ASU would take any way they could get it.

At four wins, the Sun Devils’ bowl chances survive. The momentum sets them up for two consecutive home games, another opportunity to pull off impressive victories.

Average Case Scenario: By the Slimmest of Margins

It’s really hard to find a middle ground this week. ASU desperately needs a victory, and it’s hard to imagine the repercussions of another close loss. Thus, the Sun Devils escape with a narrow win in this scenario, stealing a game they easily could’ve lost.

Like the Michigan State game, ASU hangs tight throughout the first half before falling in a third quarter hole. Sears taps in to the success he experienced in high school, opening up a double-digit lead with big games from Michael Pittman Jr. and their multiple running backs.

The high-scoring puts pressure on Wilkins and the offense to deliver. They don’t turn the ball over, but they fall into lulls of three-and-outs, missed throws and open holes that eliminate scoring chances in the first half.

Thankfully, the Sun Devil defense stands tall. They create a turnover in the middle portion of the third quarter, setting up optimal field position for the offense. ASU scores a touchdown, and suddenly, the game is within single digits entering the fourth.

At that point, the Sun Devils take over. The defense puts a stop on Sears’ earlier success and mixes combinations of pressure and aerial coverage to put him on edge. The offense uses the momentum and scores late to put ASU ahead and secure the victory.

This type of effort we see is sheer will. The Sun Devils realize where they’re at and clamp down for their first road victory. Imagine the reaction after this type of game.

Worst Case Scenario: More of the Same

When ASU lost by seven points last week, it was stunning. How about doing it for the fifth time in the fifth loss?

Normally, a blowout defeat here would be the worst case option. But you can’t get more demoralized than a loss coming in the same fashion as the ones before.

Yes, the Sun Devils lose by seven in this worst case scenario with a new ending. Rather than ASU having a chance to tie the game late, they do it, but Sears leads a game-winning drive that ends with a touchdown and more lost hope.

On offense, ASU falls into the turnover trap that plagued them last Thursday. The defense stands tall by holding the Trojans to field goals, but it’s not the turnovers or three-and-outs Gonzales is seeking on a consistent basis.

As we’ve seen from this team, they won’t quit. Wilkins hits N’Keal Harry for a late touchdown, giving the defense life to get a stop and try to salvage a victory.

Yet again, it’s too little, too late. The Trojans get the late score, and while the blame may be deflected there, it’d be necessary to look back and evaluate the whole package.

The Sun Devils and Trojans kick off at the LA Memorial Coliseum at 12:30 p.m. MST on Saturday. The game will be televised on ABC or ESPN2.