ASU Football: Best, average and worst case scenarios against San Diego State

There’s a feeling ASU football‘s matchup with San Diego State could be a “trap game.” Here are three ways Saturday night could play out.

All aboard!

The Herm Edwards train is off and running at Arizona State. Nine months after his hire, the Sun Devils have jumped out to a 2-0 start and their first AP Top 25 appearance since 2015.

In their two victories against UTSA and Michigan State, ASU has taken advantage of their offensive weapons. Junior wide receiver N’Keal Harry has logged three touchdowns and 229 receiving yards while sophomore running back Eno Benjamin has accumulated 227 yards on the ground and through the air.

But the offense hasn’t been the big story; it’s the defense. New defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales and his youthful group have given up two touchdowns in as many games, boasting the nation’s No. 1 rush defense while holding teams to 32.5 yards per game.

The country has taken notice, too. ASU’s road matchup against No. 10 Washington will be televised on ESPN next week in response to the team’s success.

But there are steps to be taken before then. In San Diego State, the Sun Devils will look to conquer their first road game and a team familiar with their concepts.

Gonzales coached at SDSU for the previous seven seasons, executing the same 3-3-5 scheme ASU runs today. Despite starting a backup in Ryan Agnew, coach Rocky Long will know what his offense is to prepare for.

Like previous years, the Aztecs possess one of the nation’s best running backs in Juwan Washington. Last season, ASU struggled to contain Rashaad Penny, who torched the Sun Devils with 353 all-purpose yards in a 30-20 SDSU victory.

With this year’s game on the road, there’s certainly a lot to account for if ASU is to improve to 3-0. Let’s take a look at three scenarios that might happen this evening.

Best Case Scenario: Still Rolling!

The Sun Devils take care of business and exit SDCCU Stadium with a decisive double-digit victory.

Manny Wilkins and the offense establish consistent drives after an off-performance in week two. Benjamin recovers from last week’s 27-yard performance by rushing for over 100 yards against the Aztec front seven, proving his reliability come Pac-12 play.

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With the attention on Harry, Wilkins again distributes his passing and finds five or more receivers for multiple receptions. This opens up plays in the red zone for Harry, who finishes with two touchdowns and adds to his case as the conference’s most talented receiver.

The pressure from ASU’s run defense suppresses Washington to under 50 yards rushing. This forces Agnew to create more plays, an opportunity the Sun Devils take to force multiple turnovers and create more scoring drives.

After the win, Edwards and Gonzales can move forward without feelings of nostalgia from San Diego. Now 3-0 with sustained momentum, ASU focuses in on No. 10 Washington, a game that may foreshadow a future meeting in Santa Clara.

Average Case Scenario: That was close…

The Sun Devils finish close to not covering the spread in week three, defeating the Aztecs by a touchdown or less in a game that’s too close for comfort.

Like Penny, Washington has a big day on the ground, rushing for over 120 yards and torching an ASU defense that had been dominant the previous two weeks. In relief of Christian Chapman, the pressure is lifted from Agnew, who throws under 20 passes like Chapman in Tempe a year ago.

This forces ASU to engage in a shootout. Wilkins throws over 40 times and collects more than 350 passing yards while looking for Harry, Terrell Chatman and Kyle Williams in shots down the field. The Sun Devil offense flashes a similar game to 2017, scoring 35 points to negate Washington’s efforts on the opposing end.

The game comes down to a final scoring drive, where Renell Wren, Darius Slade and others force Agnew to leave the pocket and make throws on the run to pick up first downs. This leads to a late-game turnover, and the Sun Devils hold on to escape with their first road victory of the season.

It certainly isn’t pretty, but ASU walks away 3-0 after overcoming nostalgia and familiarity. With Pac-12 play beginning, it’s on to a new season.

Worst Case Scenario: Not again…

In Tempe, SDSU’s Penny saw a lot of green without much resistance from ASU defenders. In San Diego, Washington sees the same open field.

The Aztec rushing attack obliterates ASU’s once again, as Washington welcomes Gonzales back with over 200 yards rushing and 50 yards receiving on his defense. SDSU scores early and often, never trailing and putting the Sun Devils in a deficit they can’t overcome.

Despite playing against the same defense they practice against, ASU’s offense is stifled early on with blitzes and coverages mixed within the 3-3-5 scheme. This allows the Aztecs to build a comfortable lead before halftime.

With as much experience as ASU has on offense, they make a run in the second half to bring the game within single digits.

But it isn’t enough. Washington puts together one last scoring drive for the Aztecs in the fourth quarter, giving the Sun Devils headaches and a loss they’ll have to recover from quickly on their way to Seattle.

ASU falls out of the AP Top 25, and for the first time this season, critics are back to negating the Sun Devils’ chances in the Pac-12 South.