ASU Football: Best, average and worst case scenarios against Michigan State

Herm Edwards’ ASU football squad faces their first test of the season with No. 15 Michigan State coming to Tempe. Here are three scenarios for how the game could play out.

If you recall last week’s scenarios against UTSA, Arizona State executed the best game possible.

The Sun Devils rocked the Roadrunners by a score of 49-7, leaving little to complain about heading into week two. ASU dominated both sides of the ball while negating worries of a disaster that could spoil Herm Edwards‘ debut.

But that was last week. Now, the Devils will prepare for a ‘big boy’ matchup against Michigan State, a team that has produced double-digit win seasons in six of the past eight years.

ASU has already identified sustained drives and limited penalties as necessary improvements. Even with that, they know a near-perfect game will be required to pull off the upset.

Without further adieu, let’s walk through the three scenarios that could play out on Saturday night.

Best Case Scenario: Not a Fluke

The Sun Devils build off last week’s momentum and stun the Spartans at home, improving to 10-0 in regular season games against Big Ten teams at Sun Devil Stadium.

The ASU offense carries over its week one with success with Manny Wilkins and N’Keal Harry connecting at will. Eno Benjamin and Isaiah Floyd provide similar support out of the backfield, and the Spartan defense can’t keep up with the weapons and schemes at Rob Likens’ disposal.

Danny Gonzales’ defense shows more comfort with its 3-3-5 scheme and forces Michigan State into quick possessions on offense. With the Spartan defense taking more snaps in the dry heat, they begin to tire out by the fourth quarter.

After picking up 11 penalties in week one, the Devils show discipline by keeping the number under five. Lulls in the offense stall and ASU is able to maintain consistent drives throughout the game.

Edwards is heralded as the hero of Tempe with his team’s name in the national conversation. ASU becomes the story of the Pac-12 and suddenly, one of its sleepers to make the conference championship game.

It’s hard to put a score on this one, but a victory against this caliber of an opponent will be taken any way possible.

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Average Scenario: Almost There

ASU puts up a strong fight in their first of five games against ranked opponents, but they fall in a close game to a superior opponent.

Excitement runs wild as the ASU offense puts points on the board early. But eventually, the experience of Pinnacle High School graduate Brian Lewerke helps his team weather the storm and put together a late drive to seal the game.

The youth of the Sun Devil defense defense comes out against a Power Five opponent. L.J. Scott has a big day on the ground and disallows ASU from dictating the time of possession.

A close loss wouldn’t be the worst scenario. Competing against a veteran Michigan State team would verify the Sun Devils can hang with the nation’s best. There’d be a few kinks that the team would need to work out (penalties, inexperience, scheme discomfort) in order to make it over the hump.

Losses are rarely satisfying, but a competitive one would buy Edwards some patience with the fans. There are several opportunities left to knock off ranked opponents.

Worst Case Scenario: Oh, no…

The Spartans rebound from their underwhelming performance against Utah State by smashing the Sun Devils by three or more scores on the road.

Michigan State’s front seven dominates the line of scrimmage, limiting Benjamin and Floyd to under 50 yards rushing. Wilkins is forced to create plays with his legs, leaving opportunities for the Spartan defense to pressure him all night long.

On defense, the Devils can’t keep up the pace they set against UTSA. They also can’t find similar success as Utah State in pressuring Lewerke, and Mark Dantonio‘s offense has a field day that many expect.

ASU sees their penalty numbers increase from week one, leaving discipline as a topic of concern for the weeks to come. Uncertainty has crept back in to the aura of the football team.

That wouldn’t mean the season is over. It just shows they aren’t ready for big time opponents.

For the success that athletic director Ray Anderson wants to have, this result isn’t up to par. ASU must adjust quickly to bounce back against San Diego State and then Washington, arguably their best opponent, on the road.