ASU Football: Is it time to panic about the offense?

ASU football‘s offense has produced lulls during their first three games. But is it time to hit the panic button yet?

Every moment of distress requires a form of evaluation.

That fact is true in life as it is figuring out why the heck Arizona State’s offense had four straight three-and-outs in the third quarter against San Diego State.

We could all look back to the key play of the game – an elected fourth-and-1 call where the Sun Devils were stopped at the Aztecs’ 11-yard line, setting up an SDSU scoring drive in response to what could’ve been a double-digit lead at halftime. After that, ASU was never the same.

Or even simpler, we could analyze the play calling. The rushing attack – which finished 0-for-2 on third-and-1 opportunities and under 45 yards for the second straight week – may have gotten too much love in a game where Frank Darby had the hot hand.

But the main point is this- Arizona State’s offense has some kinks to work out with new offensive coordinator Rob Likens. That’s fine. It’s to be expected.

Last season, Billy Napier was in the same position. By season’s end, ASU finished sixth in the Pac-12 with 431.5 yards of total offense while averaging 31.8 points per game. That included finishing second in third down conversions (44.7 percent) and third in time of possession (31:24).

To most, Napier’s system was a success. Demario Richard posted his second season of 1,000 yards rushing and Kalen Ballage became a NFL Draft selection by the Miami Dolphins. Manny Wilkins established himself as one of the most efficient passers in the Pac-12 with a target like N’Keal Harry on his side.

Let’s not forget Herm Edwards wanted Napier to stay, too. He would’ve been the team’s associate head coach while having a large say over offensive duties. He was trusted.

That trust was built over time. And it took a longer time than the three games we’ve seen from Likens.

Through Napier’s first three games of 2017, the offense also had spots where it wasn’t successful. Yes, the Sun Devils averaged 34 points per game, but the reason why they finished 1-2 is much like why ASU isn’t 3-0 to start 2018.

Improvements in 2018

In last year’s non-conference slate – which included New Mexico State, San Diego State and Texas Tech- the rushing attack had less success. The Sun Devils carried the ball 115 times for 291 yards for an average of 2.53 yards per carry.

That team did have more rushing touchdowns (6), but the former numbers have improved in 2018. The Devils have rushed 89 times for 346 yards, marking an average of 3.9 yards per carry.

Eno Benjamin, the team’s main rusher, has done better in some areas than last year’s starter, Ballage. The two each rushed for 179 yards through three games, but Benjamin has done it on 42 carries compared to Ballage’s 49.

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Benjamin has also been a better weapon in the passing game. He’s already tallied 15 receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown in comparison to Ballage’s five receptions for 34 yards and no scores.

As a team, the Sun Devils have also done a better job of protecting the ball. ASU hasn’t lost a fumble yet after coughing the ball up six times and losing two last year.

ASU has also limited the number of three-and-outs from nine to eight. The difference is slim, but the increase in competition makes it a bit more impressive.

In spite of less scoring, Wilkins has matched the number of touchdowns (7) he threw in the first three games of 2017 while throwing for 958 passing yards, which is 34 more than last year.

Obviously, the record is better too. A 2-1 start paired with an AP Top 25 ranking is better than a 1-2 start with struggles against non-power five schools. A large part of that has to do with the defense, but the offense has made plays when it counted.

Where things were better last year

Third down conversions are one of the biggest differences. In 2017, the Sun Devils finished 19/46 (41.3 percent) through their first three games compared to 12/37 (32 percent) this season. A majority of conversions have come through the air rather than the ground.

The ground game was better in scoring drives, too. Benjamin and Ballage tallied the same amount of yards, but Ballage had five touchdowns to Benjamin’s one.

In general, the percentage of scoring drives have dipped slightly. The Devils scored 15 times in 39 drives during their first three games in 2017 (38.4 percent), a statistic that dropped to 13 scores in 35 drives in 2018 (37.1 percent).

Wilkins’ accuracy was also partially better. He completed 69/101 (68 percent) of his passes compared to 77/118 (65 percent) of his completions this year. If you’re picky, Wilkins threw no interceptions through the first three games compared to the one he threw against Michigan State.

Most importantly, it’s about points on the board. The 34 points per game average from last year has dipped to 28.6 in 2018.

In Conclusion

It’s worth nothing these numbers are a small sample size. The caliber of opponents are different from last year, and some of the offensive pieces have changed.

It’s also important to note it’s early. Yes, the offense needs to sustain scoring drives, but they’ve improved in certain areas from 2017.

With No. 10 Washington approaching, it can be easy to panic about ASU’s chances. But history tells us this is where they turn the corner.

At the time the teams faced last season, ASU was 2-3. Their upset victory sparked a 5-2 finish to the regular season, pushing them to a second place finish in the Pac-12 South.

This year, the team jumped into the AP Top 25 and picked up a marquee victory before Pac-12 play even began. This 2-1 start would be acceptable before the season began.

Next. ASU Football: Another tough road test looms in Washington. dark

Offensive issues may exist, but unless they linger, there’s a long way to go until they become real problems.

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